课程信息
4.8
107 个评分
22 个审阅
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100% 在线

立即开始,按照自己的计划学习。
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初级

初级

完成时间(小时)

完成时间大约为14 小时

建议:7 hours/week...
可选语言

英语(English)

字幕:英语(English), 阿拉伯语(Arabic), 中文(简体), 巴西葡萄牙语, 西班牙语(Spanish)
100% 在线

100% 在线

立即开始,按照自己的计划学习。
可灵活调整截止日期

可灵活调整截止日期

根据您的日程表重置截止日期。
初级

初级

完成时间(小时)

完成时间大约为14 小时

建议:7 hours/week...
可选语言

英语(English)

字幕:英语(English), 阿拉伯语(Arabic), 中文(简体), 巴西葡萄牙语, 西班牙语(Spanish)

教学大纲 - 您将从这门课程中学到什么

1
完成时间(小时)
完成时间为 15 分钟

Welcome to the Course

<p>Welcome to <b>Think Again: How to Reason Inductively</b>! This course is the third in a series of four courses jointly titled <em>Think Again: How to Reason and Argue</em>. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn.</p><p>In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. </p><p>The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "<b>Introduction to the Course</b>" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later. </p>...
Reading
1 个视频 (总计 5 分钟), 1 个阅读材料
Video1 个视频
Reading1 个阅读材料
Course Logistics (Start Here)10分钟
完成时间(小时)
完成时间为 6 小时

Inductive Arguments

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:<ul> <li>distinguish inductive from deductive arguments</li> <li>classify inductive arguments into five kinds</li> <li>identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases</li><li>identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments from analogy</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 8 and 9.</p>...
Reading
9 个视频 (总计 129 分钟), 8 个测验
Video9 个视频
Generalizations from Samples9分钟
When are Generalizations Strong?20分钟
Applying Generalizations17分钟
Another Example of Applying Generalizations (Optional)16分钟
Inference to the Best Explanation8分钟
Which Explanation Is Best?14分钟
A Student Example of Inference to the Best Explanation8分钟
Arguments from Analogy18分钟
Quiz8 个练习
What Is Induction?24分钟
Generalizations from Samples10分钟
When are Generalizations Strong?24分钟
Applying Generalizations24分钟
Inference to the Best Explanation20分钟
Which Explanation Is Best?20分钟
A Student Example: Inference to the Best Explanation6分钟
Arguments from Analogy30分钟
2
完成时间(小时)
完成时间为 4 小时

Causal Reasoning

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.</p> <p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do: <ul> <li> analyze causal reasoning</li> <li>distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions</li> <li>determine what is necessary or sufficient for what</li> <li>separate causation from correlation</li> </ul> </p> <p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapter 10.</p> ...
Reading
9 个视频 (总计 100 分钟), 8 个测验
Video9 个视频
Negative Sufficient Condition Tests9分钟
Positive Sufficient Condition Tests10分钟
Negative Necessary Condition Tests4分钟
Positive Necessary Condition Tests6分钟
Complex Conditions11分钟
Correlation Versus Causation20分钟
Causal Fallacies5分钟
A Student Example: Causal Reasoning About Chocolate15分钟
Quiz8 个练习
Causal Reasoning24分钟
Negative Sufficient Condition Tests22分钟
Positive Sufficient Condition Tests6分钟
Negative Necessary Condition Tests20分钟
Positive Necessary Condition Tests4分钟
Complex Conditions18分钟
Correlation Versus Causation14分钟
Causal Fallacies8分钟
3
完成时间(小时)
完成时间为 6 小时

Chance and Choice

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value. </p><p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do: <ul><li> solve some classic paradoxes of probability</li><li>apply simple rules of probability</li><li>use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities</li><li>avoid fallacies of probability</li><li>apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values</li><li>distinguish financial value from overall value</li><li>use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend<em> Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 11 and 12 ...
Reading
10 个视频 (总计 117 分钟), 9 个测验
Video10 个视频
What Is Probability?8分钟
Negation2分钟
Conjunction12分钟
Disjunction9分钟
Series6分钟
Bayes Theorem (Optional)28分钟
Expected Financial Value13分钟
Expected Overall Value10分钟
The Sausage Argument: A Student Argument About Decision Making13分钟
Quiz9 个练习
Why Probability Matters8分钟
What Is Probability?18分钟
Negation14分钟
Conjunction30分钟
Disjunction32分钟
Series8分钟
Bayes Theorem (Optional)42分钟
Expected Financial Value18分钟
Expected Overall Value10分钟
4
完成时间(小时)
完成时间为 1 小时

Catch-Up and Final Quiz

<p>This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time. </p><p>We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences. </p>...
Reading
1 个测验
Quiz1 个练习
Final Quiz
4.8
22 个审阅Chevron Right

热门审阅

创建者 DDJun 19th 2018

Perfect course and presentation of material.Very good incorporation of mentors for discusion.Good job!

创建者 SMJun 22nd 2017

This entire series was informative, engaging, and fun, and the thinking skills taught are so valuable.

讲师

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Dr. Walter Sinnott-Armstrong

Professor
Philosophy
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Dr. Ram Neta

Professor
Philosophy

关于 Duke University

Duke University has about 13,000 undergraduate and graduate students and a world-class faculty helping to expand the frontiers of knowledge. The university has a strong commitment to applying knowledge in service to society, both near its North Carolina campus and around the world....

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“I'd like to thank both professors for the course. It was fun, instructive, and I loved the input from people from all over the world, with their different views and backgrounds.”

    

“Somewhere in the first couple weeks of the course, I was ruminating over some concept or perhaps over one of the homework exercises and suddenly it occurred to me, "'Is this what thinking is?" Just to clarify, I come from a thinking family and have thought a lot about various concepts and issues throughout my life and career...but somehow I realized that, even though I seemed to be thinking all the time, I hadn't been doing this type of thinking for quite some time...so, thanks!”

    

“The rapport between Dr. Sinott-Armstrong and Dr. Neta and their senses of humor made the lectures engaging and enjoyable. Their passion for the subject was apparent and they were patient and thorough in their explanations.”



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