提供方

杜克大学

课程信息

4,809

How to Reason Inductively
Think Again: How to Reason and Argue
Reasoning is important. This series of four short courses will teach you how to do it well. You will learn simple but vital rules to follow in thinking about any topic at all and common and tempting mistakes to avoid in reasoning. We will discuss how to identify, analyze, and evaluate arguments by other people (including politicians, used car salesmen, and teachers) and how to construct arguments of your own in order to help you decide what to believe or what to do. These skills will be useful in dealing with whatever matters most to you.
Courses at a Glance:
All four courses in this series are offered through sessions which run every four weeks. We suggest sticking to the weekly schedule to the best of your ability. If for whatever reason you fall behind, feel free to re-enroll in the next session.We also suggest that you start each course close to the beginning of a month in order to increase the number of peers in the discussion forums who are working on the same material as you are. While each course can be taken independently, we suggest you take the four courses in order.
Course 1 - Think Again I: How to Understand Arguments
Course 2 - Think Again II: How to Reason Deductively
Course 3 - Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively
Course 4 - Think Again IV: How to Avoid Fallacies
About This Course in the Series:
Think Again: How to Reason Inductively
Want to solve a murder mystery? What caused your computer to fail? Who can you trust in your everyday life? In this course, you will learn what distinguishes inductive arguments from deductive arguments and then how to analyze and assess five common forms of inductive arguments: generalizations from samples, applications of generalizations, inference to the best explanation, arguments from analogy, and causal reasoning. The course closes by showing how probability can be used to help us make decisions of all sorts.
Suggested Readings
Students who want more detailed explanations or additional exercises or who want to explore these topics in more depth should consult Understanding Arguments: An Introduction to Informal Logic, Ninth Edition, Concise, Chapters 8-12, by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Robert Fogelin.
Course Format
Each week will be divided into multiple video segments that can be viewed separately or in groups. There will be short ungraded quizzes after each segment (to check comprehension) and a longer graded quiz at the end of the course.

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字幕：阿拉伯语（Arabic）, 中文（简体）, 巴西葡萄牙语, 英语（English）, 西班牙语（Spanish）

立即开始，按照自己的计划学习。

根据您的日程表重置截止日期。

字幕：阿拉伯语（Arabic）, 中文（简体）, 巴西葡萄牙语, 英语（English）, 西班牙语（Spanish）

周

1<p>Welcome to <b>Think Again: How to Reason Inductively</b>! This course is the third in a series of four courses jointly titled <em>Think Again: How to Reason and Argue</em>. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn.</p><p>In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. </p><p>The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "<b>Introduction to the Course</b>" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later. </p>...

1 个视频 （总计 5 分钟）, 1 个阅读材料

Course Logistics (Start Here)10分钟

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:<ul> <li>distinguish inductive from deductive arguments</li> <li>classify inductive arguments into five kinds</li> <li>identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases</li><li>identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments from analogy</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 8 and 9.</p>...

9 个视频 （总计 129 分钟）, 8 个测验

Generalizations from Samples9分钟

When are Generalizations Strong?20分钟

Applying Generalizations17分钟

Another Example of Applying Generalizations (Optional)16分钟

Inference to the Best Explanation8分钟

Which Explanation Is Best?14分钟

A Student Example of Inference to the Best Explanation8分钟

Arguments from Analogy18分钟

What Is Induction?24分钟

Generalizations from Samples10分钟

When are Generalizations Strong?24分钟

Applying Generalizations24分钟

Inference to the Best Explanation20分钟

Which Explanation Is Best?20分钟

A Student Example: Inference to the Best Explanation6分钟

Arguments from Analogy30分钟

周

2<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.</p>
<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do:
<ul>
<li> analyze causal reasoning</li>
<li>distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions</li>
<li>determine what is necessary or sufficient for what</li>
<li>separate causation from correlation</li>
</ul>
</p>
<p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapter 10.</p>
...

9 个视频 （总计 100 分钟）, 8 个测验

Causal Reasoning16分钟

Negative Sufficient Condition Tests9分钟

Positive Sufficient Condition Tests10分钟

Negative Necessary Condition Tests4分钟

Positive Necessary Condition Tests6分钟

Complex Conditions11分钟

Correlation Versus Causation20分钟

Causal Fallacies5分钟

A Student Example: Causal Reasoning About Chocolate15分钟

Causal Reasoning24分钟

Negative Sufficient Condition Tests22分钟

Positive Sufficient Condition Tests6分钟

Negative Necessary Condition Tests20分钟

Positive Necessary Condition Tests4分钟

Complex Conditions18分钟

Correlation Versus Causation14分钟

Causal Fallacies8分钟

周

3<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value. </p><p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do: <ul><li> solve some classic paradoxes of probability</li><li>apply simple rules of probability</li><li>use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities</li><li>avoid fallacies of probability</li><li>apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values</li><li>distinguish financial value from overall value</li><li>use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend<em> Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 11 and 12 ...

10 个视频 （总计 117 分钟）, 9 个测验

What Is Probability?8分钟

Negation2分钟

Conjunction12分钟

Disjunction9分钟

Series6分钟

Bayes Theorem (Optional)28分钟

Expected Financial Value13分钟

Expected Overall Value10分钟

The Sausage Argument: A Student Argument About Decision Making13分钟

Why Probability Matters8分钟

What Is Probability?18分钟

Negation14分钟

Conjunction30分钟

Disjunction32分钟

Series8分钟

Bayes Theorem (Optional)42分钟

Expected Financial Value18分钟

Expected Overall Value10分钟

周

4<p>This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time. </p><p>We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences. </p>...

1 个测验

Final Quiz

4.8

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创建者 DD•Jun 19th 2018

Perfect course and presentation of material.Very good incorporation of mentors for discusion.Good job!

创建者 SM•Jun 22nd 2017

This entire series was informative, engaging, and fun, and the thinking skills taught are so valuable.

Duke University has about 13,000 undergraduate and graduate students and a world-class faculty helping to expand the frontiers of knowledge. The university has a strong commitment to applying knowledge in service to society, both near its North Carolina campus and around the world....

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What is the coolest thing I'll learn if I take this class?

How to solve a murder mystery.

What are people saying about this class?

“I'd like to thank both professors for the course. It was fun, instructive, and I loved the input from people from all over the world, with their different views and backgrounds.”

“Somewhere in the first couple weeks of the course, I was ruminating over some concept or perhaps over one of the homework exercises and suddenly it occurred to me, "'Is this what thinking is?" Just to clarify, I come from a thinking family and have thought a lot about various concepts and issues throughout my life and career...but somehow I realized that, even though I seemed to be thinking all the time, I hadn't been doing this type of thinking for quite some time...so, thanks!”

“The rapport between Dr. Sinott-Armstrong and Dr. Neta and their senses of humor made the lectures engaging and enjoyable. Their passion for the subject was apparent and they were patient and thorough in their explanations.”

Will I receive a transcript from Duke University for completing this course?

No. Completion of a Coursera course does not earn you academic credit from Duke; therefore, Duke is not able to provide you with a university transcript. However, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile.

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