So in this segment today, we're going to
do a deep dive into a particular historical episode.
I've done a little bit of this sort of thing before in some other presentations.
Remember I did kind of a zoom-in on what happened
with the fate of North America in the early 1800s,
and I did another zoom-in when we were looking
at some of the ingredients of the Industrial Revolution.
Steam engines, electricity,
evolution. Things like that.
This time, I want to do a zoom-in on an imperialiam story.
There's a life at stake.
Which life? The life of China.
The whole future of China is at stake.
So, it's actually kind of a pretty big story in world history.
You remember what happened
to Africa in that last presentation?
How Africa was carved up in the 1880s and 1890s?
Well, that's just about happened to China around 1900.
How China avoided this fate is the subject
of our little dive into the workings of imperialism.
And through this one case study, I think you'll
also get a feel of the world of 1900.
All right.
Let's take a look.
So let's set the scene here as to why China is in the balance.
When we last talked about China and Japan, remember we talked about
the choices that those countries made to try to build themselves up.
In China, we called it Self-Strengthening in the 1860s and 1870s.
In Japan, you saw the choices that the Meiji Emperor makes
to build Japan into a powerful nation state, borrowing a lot of
ideas from western countries, but still remaining distinctively Japanese.
Okay.
So, China and Japan are on these paths to build themselves up.
The key event in the 1890s is that the
two countries test their new found strength against each other.
There's a war between China and Japan.
The particular issues aren't as important now, although they're
a bit disturbingly reminiscent of some things in today's
headlines in 2012 and 2013. But, back to the 1890s.
It's aging, decadent quality, dominated by the Dowager Empress, who
had been the concubine of the emperor who had died in 1861.
A new young emperor takes charge, and in 1898, reacting to
China's military defeat, he tries to embark on a remarkable program
of reform. The Dowager Empress stamps it out.
Indeed, that emperor dies mysteriously soon afterwards,
and his advisers who'd helped him with the reform program, with
names like Kang Youwei, flee for their lives to places like Japan.
So that's the situation in 1898. China's been beaten in war with Japan;
it's staggering.
The Japanese, meanwhile, then make territorial
claims on the Chinese mainland to back up their victory in the war.
The Japanese claim sets off a great power
scramble, in which everyone starts to assert their claims.
All right, so now let's step back and set the scene for what's
going on with the great powers in Asia as we get into 1898-1899.
Take a look at this map. This map focuses on Southeast Asia.
You'll see that not only are the Dutch
East Indies now more firmly under Dutch control.
The Germans have been moving into the Pacific, too.
The Americans have just fought a war with Spain.
Somewhat surprisingly to everyone involved, has the result of
the Philippine Islands becoming a colony of the Unites States.
Something that no one had really foreseen when the Spanish American War began,
which was a war fought over Cuba.
But the Americans ended up defeating a Spanish fleet here
in Manila Bay.
The Americans found themselves as the power on the spot.
And so then the Americans had basically three choices in the fall of 1898.
Just think about their choices for a second.
One, give the islands back to the Spanish.
Well, that didn't quite seem like the right thing to do.
a) the Americans were pessimistic about whether the Filipinos could pull it off
and thought the islands might revert to some sort of
anarchic
disorder.
Or b) and probably more likely, they thought the Filipinos won't be able to
keep it because the Germans and the
Japanese are circling the islands like vultures,
and as soon as they see that the Philippines
are basically open season, one of them will take it.
Turns out, as you can see right over here, the Germans take
the Palau Islands in 1899, the Caroline Islands go to Germany in 1899.
The Germans
have been quarrelling with the Americans and
others about other islands in the Pacific, too.
And a German naval squadron was literally
sitting out in Manila Bay watching the Americans.
And the Japanese were expressing polite interest.
The third option was the Americans just kind of
keep it and try to make the best of it.
And, console themselves with thought that, hey, we're becoming an empire too.
A little later than the others, but we're
joining the race.
That's what the British urged the Americans to do, and finally
the American government decides to do that in the fall of 1898.
Turns out to be very controversial in the United States.
There's a huge fight over it for lots of understandable reasons.
Congress barely decides to approve McKinley's decision,
President McKinley's decision, to take the islands.
Up here, in the Yangtze River Valley, opening up at Shanghai and
Nanking,
now called
Nanjing.
The Yellow River Valley and, of course, Peking,
leading to the port at Tientsin, and then this emerging
industrial area of Manchuria, where there were very significant coal deposits.
And in the 1800s, coal was the coin of industrial progress.
The reason I spent some time on this is I want you
to understand that almost all of the arguments over the next few years
will turn on who controls this region right in here.
Who controls this area that controls all of the maritime outlets?
Places like Port Arthur at the end of the Liaodong Peninsula.
Places like Kiao-chau on the Shandong Peninsula.
So what happens is: the Japanese make their
claim to get a lot of this territory.
The Japanese are fended off by the great powers and
console themselves with some lesser gains.
The Germans then say, we're going to
expand our holdings here in the Tsingtao region.
By the way, if you've ever seen
Tsingtao beer in a Chinese restaurant, German brewers.
Well, now we're off to the races,
because the Russians are expanding their sphere of influence,
to the point that by 1898 and on into 1899,
it looks like the scramble for China, with the
French starting to make their arguments, the Japanese still pushing,
looks like it's well under way.
Here's the Russian Empire in 1795. Now let's add to that, Russian
acquisitions in the first half of the 19th century, up to about 1855.
Central Asia, some here in Europe, they jump the Pacific Straits into
Alaska and were working their way down that side of the North Pacific.
But then they sell off Alaska to the United States in 1867.
But in the second half of the
1800s, more and more, the Russians are then thinking
about: how do we access the whole Pacific world?
So look at what's happening in this region in the second half of the 1800s.
Yes, more expansion in central Asia, but especially
important expansion here, in this region right here.
Why? Look at this railway.
This is the Trans-Siberian Railway.
It's the connection between the European part
of the Russian Empire and its Asiatic domains.
Most of the population settlements are near this line.
It's making its way to the valuable mineral
deposits of Manchuria, but also to access to
warm water, ice-free ports, as you work your
way down here towards the Sea of Japan.
That's Russia's outlook
point to the whole Pacific World.
And now, just to give you a little more of a sense of the geography
using a contemporary map, here's that Vladivostokâ
port, that outlet to the Sea of Japan.
But you see how, in the wintertime, that can be pretty precarious, too,
a lot of ice in that region, a lot of ice here, and here.
From a Russian perspective, this peninsula is
very important, and so is that port right
there, Port Arthur.
As the Russians try to expand their sphere of
influence in Manchuria, they're running up against the Japanese,
who are trying to expand their influence in
Korea, a historic tributary of the Chinese Empire.
And the Japanese also looking at the
wealth of Manchuria and worrying about Russian expansion.
While, meanwhile, the British have set themselves
up here, the German's have set themselves up here.
And there's more coming.
The world knows China matters.
Even in 1899, China is the most populous country on Earth.
Its fate is going to be pivotal in world history.
So the question then on a lot of
people's minds were: what now should happen to China?
Well, first of all, you'd want to hear what the Chinese think about it.
Let's take
a look at that.
What would be some of the Chinese answers
to this question of how they protect their future?
Well, first of all, they might turn to the traditional
answer of, let's just build up our strength some more.
But having crushed their own reform movement in 1898, having just
lost the war with Japan, this is looking like a struggle.
It's a situation of imperial decay.
Or they could use their time-honored strategy of hoping to
avoid being gobbled up by playing the barbarians against each other.
Digging even further into the question, let's not
just generalize about what do the Chinese think.
Which Chinese are we really talking about here?
Well one group of Chinese, of course, would be the people running the empire.
Those would be the people in the Manchu court.
Well that would be led,
of course, by the Dowager Empress.
Just to give you a sense of the Dowager Empress, here's kind
of a formal court photograph of the Dowager Empress, taken around this time.
Because of the weakness of the empire, some of the
other nobles around the realm are forming partnerships of their own.
You could take, for example, a group of
nobles whom westerners might call the Yangtze viceroys.
In effect, deputies for the empire, ruling portions of
the Yangtze Valley.
And therefore, forming partnerships and arrangements with the influential
foreign powers in that valley, above all the British.
There would also be influential military chieftains.
Like, for example, the promising Chinese General Yuan Shikai.
Here's a picture of Yuan Shikai around this
Time, in the uniform of the Imperial Army.
Westerners would, of course, be hearing other Chinese
voices, such as those who would hope to reform the imperial court.
Such as the reformers that had hoped to change the empire from within.
And then there are revolutionaries who've given up on the empire and
believe the empire needs to be overthrown and replaced with a republic.
So there are a number of Chinese who believe that the empire cannot be saved.
For example, one of them, probably the most
well known to us today, is this man, Sun
Yat-sen.
By the way, you notice, he's not wearing the queue,
no head shaved here,
in Western Garb.
Sun Yat-sen comes from the southern part of China.
He'd spent time getting a Western education.
He'd come to be a believer in forming a Chinese Republic.
The Chinese Empire had tried to capture him,
chase him down, and bring him back for execution.
At one point, actually had kidnapped
him in London, and he was just barely able to be saved with Western intervention.
But Sun Yat-sen has survived, and he's an important dissident voice.
So in other words, you've got a number of Chinese voices, but perhaps no one
clear message over what should be done to answer the problem of how to save China.
And you'll notice that all of these different Chinese
factions will be looking for allies among the influential foreigners.
Complicated question really.
In part because one foreigner, the British might worry that it will
be the Russians who will end up getting most of the meal.
And the British won't get enough.
So there's rivalry between
the foreigners, as well as their greed and interest in China.
So there are a number of different answers.
To put this in terms of a policymaker, there are different policy options.
Let's examine what the menu of policy options would have been if you
were among the foreigners contemplating the future of China in 1899 and 1900.
Okay, answer number one:
Careful, deliberate expansion.
This probably would be the dominant answer you would've heard from the Russians.
From this point of view, what would you do if you wanted deliberate expansion?
You'd form a political partnership with influential Chinese, who are giving
up on the empire and were willing to work with you.
You'd want to be sure you had military dominance.
That is, troops on the ground, in or around Chinese territory.
You'd want
effective control of the key infrastructure, the
ports, the railroads; that's what really matters.
You'd want effective control of the public finances,
for example, loan the Chinese government a lot
of money and then demand conditions for repayment
that will effectively give you that kind of control.
And, of course, you'll oppose any intervention in China by other foreigners,
because you don't want to do anything to give up the inside track.
All right, that's one policy option. Let's take a look at another.
Another answer might be what I call the Passive Open Door.
This would be the policy that I would ascribe to the British Government.
Commercial access for all, everybody should be allowed to trade.
And, of course, in order to be able to trade, you need to protect the
security of your people who are on the ground doing the trading and their assets,
their property.
So, extraterritoriality, those sorts of protections.
It's really the kind of policy in which the British Government is resigned
to the fact that the Qing Empire is dying.
In fact, the prime minister, Lord Salisbury, gave a
really extraordinary speech, in which he simply announced at the
end of the 1890s, somewhat sadly, that there were living
nations in the world and dying nations in the world,
and a great problem of international politics was going to be what
to do about the dying nations and what they were going to leave behind.
A different kind of policy choice is this option, an Active Open Door policy.
An Active Open Door policy, I'd associate mainly with the United States of America
and especially with its senior statesman,
President McKinley's Secretary of State, John Hay.
Here's a photograph of John Hay.
Still close to the British, he'd been the Ambassador in London.
But he disagreed with the British
on some of the particulars of an Open Door approach.
He was influenced, for example, by his key aid, a man named Rockhill,
who was devoted to Chinese culture and literature
and thought the Chinese needed to have an independent future.
So if you believed in an Active Open
Door policy, of course you'd want commercial access.
Of course, you'd want security for your people and your property.
But you would actively oppose expansion by other countries.
You'd utter phrases like: we'd support, quote,
the territorial integrity of China, close quote.
In other words, part of your policy would actually be
to try to help China get more independent and stronger.
Now from the American point of view this makes sense because if this
becomes an all-out imperial grab, the Americans aren't going to win the race.
They're not in the position, nor they do have the appetite, to
project power in the way the British or
the Russians or the Japanese would project it.
So any scenario in which the British, Russians, and Japanese
carve up China, the Americans are going to be pushed out.
So if you want to maintain open commercial
access, it's both in your enlightened interest and
your self-interest to actually try to keep China
from being carved up by the stronger imperial powers.
Now of course, your strategy might not succeed.
So if you supported an active, more pro-Chinese Open Door
policy, you'd still have to have a hedge in the background,
just in case your policy failed at least you'd
be able to have your own foothold in the place.
You'd seek agreement with your key rivals, kind of the
rules of the road, as to who would get what.
Here are some cartoons showing just how Western
commentators were seeing China's future around 1899-1900.
In this
French cartoon, China, the cake of kings and emperors.
And you see the British Empress, the German Kaiser,
the French, the Japanese gathered around with their carving knives.
The British are looking over anxiously, the Chinese caricature...concerned.
If we look over at this illustration. This is from an American newspaper.
China's at the gallows being prodded by
the Germans, the French, the Japanese, the British.
Of course, they yell jump and say, yes, but if
you jump the verdict will be that you killed yourself.
Just to show you how advanced this speculation was,
this map actually appeared in a major
newspaper in London, in the summer of 1900,
showing how it was
possible that China would end up getting
carved up: Japanese, Italian, French, British, German, Russian.
By the way, if you don't see an American sphere here, you're right.
Just so that you see that there is
a cultural and ideological dimension to all this too,
look at this interesting illustration.
This illustration is about the Yellow Peril.
This is not done by some newspaper illustrator for his magazine.
This illustration was commissioned by the German Kaiser, who told Knackfuss,
who put together this little sketch, what he wanted in it.
So here you see the Angel Michael gesturing at the Yellow Peril in the East.
There's now a duty, a duty of all
the civilized governments shown by these allegorical figures,
like France here and Germany here,
to unite together to advance the cause of civilization.
You see the glowing cross against that peril.
That the German emperor would think that
that illustration captured his convictions speaks volumes.
Okay, so, you got the powder keg.
Hear the fuse kind of going
[SOUND]
ready to explode, just as if things could not
get any worse for China, here comes the Boxer Crisis.
Boxer Crisis, what's that?
In the Chinese countryside, a lot of
poor people had organized themselves into militant
societies, with names like the Society of
Harmonious Fists or the Society of Small Swords.
These societies organized a large, popular uprising
Directed, at first, mainly at the foreigners in North China.
North China, that same region where the foreigners are beginning to scramble.
Why does this uprising happen?
This isn't the first popular uprising in the Chinese countryside;
they're endemic. The Qing Empire had dealt with a number of them.
But this one happens to be especially directed at the foreigners.
There had just been another drought,
very hard times in Chinese agriculture.
A lot of hungry people in desperate straits.
And here are all these foreigners, now moving into North China.
Setting up their churches, proselytizing among the
Chinese people, claiming special protections for their converts.
So a lot of the unrest is focused on the
symbols of the West: on churches, on missionaries, on Chinese Christians.
Other Chinese notables, like the Yangtze viceroys
further south, are making more common cause with
the British, trying to contain the area of
unrest to those disturbed parts of North China.
So the Chinese are divided among themselves.
But finally, the Dowager Empress and the Qing Empire make the most catastrophic
mistake of all:
they decide to use this rebellion as an
opportunity to align themselves with the common people,
and they declare war on all the Western powers.
Imagine it: the Qing Empire, in this incredibly
vulnerable situation, takes the initiative of declaring war
and literally hands the Western powers all
the possible excuse they could want to launch
a full-scale invasion of China, that can only have bad results.
The Qing Empire then allows its troops to work with
the Boxer rebels to besiege the foreign legations in Peking itself.
These foreign legations basically are huge foreign
outposts of hundreds of people, mostly civilians
but also military people from a number of different
nations, British, German, American, Russian, all
trapped together under siege, under attack.
It's actually quite a remarkable story.
All communication from the foreign legations in Peking is cut off.
For a period of nearly eight weeks, the foreign legations hold out under seige.
In the West, it's reported in the newspapers
that the legations have been overrun, and it's assumed
that all their diplomats have been slaughtered.
In fact, they're still alive,
holding out as a relief expedition is mounted,
what we would now call an international peacekeeping force,
composed of troops of a number of nations, to land at Tientsin and march to Peking
and relieve the besieged legations. That's happening in the summer of 1900.
Here are some of the images produced
at the time as the foreign troops arrive.
This is a Japanese illustration, of course totally romanticized, in
which troops from the different contingents are confronting the Chinese.
Here's another romanticized illustration
this one produced by the Marine Corps,
that shows U.S. Marines gallantly scaling the
walls, planting the American flag, as they help to relieve the siege of Peking.
Indeed, you can even find a Hollywood film on this called
55 days at Peking, with Charlton Heston, David Niven, Eva Gardner.
I can't quite recommend it as a movie, but
it's an interesting glimpse of a version of history.
China, in effect, lies prostrate at the feet of these victorious foreign powers.
Now what's going to happen?
Postwar negotiations ensued. This is the moment
which John Hayes circulated the second of his famous Open Door Notes.
This is the note in which he emphasizes
his desire to preserve the territorial integrity of China.
Now, it's not that everybody listens to what the Americans have to say about it.
But it is a little bit as if all these foreign powers have gathered in the room
and John Hay, kind of, is looking around
in effect saying: well, you're not thinking of carving
up China are you? You wouldn't want to do that.
And everyone else in the room is going, er, mm,
[LAUGH]
So it slows them down a little bit; there's some confusion.
There is a big push to get the Chinese to pay
a gigantic sum in reparations, which of course, they can't afford,
which will give the foreigners even deeper control over Chinese public finances.
In all of this, it becomes slowly apparent
that the Russians are going to make their move
to really expand their grip over Manchuria.
As the Russian
move becomes more and more apparent, the Americans, who as you
can tell were playing a pretty active role in all of this,
they'd taken part in the relief expedition,
they'd been very active in the diplomacy,
the Americans effectively withdraw. What happens?
Fall of 1900, President McKinley is running for reelection,
American overseas expansion is not, not popular.
And President McKinley
gives the order to pull all the American troops out of China.
He doesn't want them there.
He wants those troops out.
Secretary of State Hays protests; he's overruled, the Americans leave.
They effectively give up their seat at the table at a key point in the fall of 1900.
What then happens is the British and Germans start talking about
whether they can work together to cut some sort of deal.
That effort completely collapses.
They'll form an understanding
with the British that will end up leading to
a formal alliance between the British and the Japanese,
primarily to hold back the advance of Russian military power.
That will actually end up leading to a war between Russia and Japan in 1904 and 1905,
a war that the Japanese substantially win, partly over quarrels as to
who should control certain key parts of China, especially that peninsula and
the port of Port Arthur.
So, why do I go through this in all this detail?
Because the outcome of this story is hugely significant.
China manages to get through this crisis without being carved up.
And if you ask yourself the question: Why?
Why does China survive?
I've tried to show that this is actually
an awfully complicated story when you dig into it,
even though the outcome is extremely important.
Let's think about a few of the key ingredients that stand out.
A few factors that occurred to me
are: there are some constructive Chinese voices,
the hope of future reform represented by some
of the exiled reformers,
even the role that's played by the Yangtze viceroy's during the crisis.
There's also confusion and division among
the foreign powers. And here, the Americans,
I think, had helped play an important part to keep them from having a united front.
And there's also rivalry among the foreigners,
so that finally the British and the Japanese helped combine to slow down
the pace of Russian expansion into
Manchuria and help preserve the Qing Empire,
although neither the British nor the Japanese felt any
particular great stake in the future of that Empire.
They just couldn't yet imagine something else that would take its place.
By the way, in the British case,
they're deeply distracted by a war they're fighting
at the same time against rebels in South Africa, the Boer War,
which also keeps them from giving
the Chinese problem their full imperial attention.
So you step back, you have an enormously
important outcome for the future of world history,
and when you dig into the causes of this, you get into a really intricate policy
story, in which choices are being made by
Chinese, choices are being made by a variety
of different foreigners,
these choices interact to produce a result
that perhaps none of them had cumulatively foreseen.
That's sometimes what history is like.
Next time, we'll talk about how this imperial
fever finally begins to break in the early 1900s.
See you then.