6.8. The first signs of “de-globalization”. Brexit. Problems and challenges

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来自 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology 的课程

Capital Markets and Financial Institutions – How to Survive Them

9 个评分

Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

Capital Markets and Financial Institutions – How to Survive Them

9 个评分

课程 1（共 5 门，Specialization Understanding Modern Finance）

Capital markets and financial institutions are all around us. This is an enormous industry in which powerful players oftentimes challenge investors and the public at large and expose them to significant risks. This Course provides for the deep understanding of the core ideas, concepts, and mechanisms of the modern capital market in a learner-friendly way. We will analyze the market’s most fundamental problems, realize the intrinsic interests of the market participants, reveal the true meaning of certain financial terms, and uncover credible signals of the likely behavior of economic agents – all that with little math and a lot of fun. The learners will be much better positioned with respect to the financial environment. They will see through the financial news, reveal the risks of the financiers’ wishful thinking promises, and protect themselves against dangerous adventures. The learners will get the opportunity to use the obtained knowledge, skills, and understanding for the successful professional career in the financial and other business areas, as well as in their day-to-day life.

从本节课中

СМО and the 2008 World Financial Crisis. The Ascent of Moral Hazard. Globalization. Wrap-Up. Some Positive Messages

Week 6, the final week of the Course covers securitization and CMO’s. We will reveal the role of the CMO market in the development of the world financial meltdown that peaked in 2008 and, as many believe, is not yet over. We will study the details of the role of CMO’s in the development of the crisis. We will consider the measures taken by the regulators, the “too big to fail” phenomenon, and will understand why the governments so actively helped the biggest international investment banks found to have been on the verge of bankruptcy. We will also talk about the globalization of capital markets and the first signals of a counter-trend – de-globalization. We will clearly see how modern geopolitical and technological trends contribute to the ascent of moral hazard that is now a global problem. Finally, some clear and useful recommendations are provided. As a result, you will be able to successfully apply the obtained knowledge and skills not only in finance but also in your career and life in general.

6.1. CMO – the idea14:51

6.2. CMO – the mechanism, cash flows, and risk12:11

6.3. CMO and the crisis (1) – the market, mortgage brokers, and substandard mortgages5:14

6.4. CMO and the crisis (2) – securitization, CMO tranches, credit rating and insurance, SPV. Toxic assets6:32

6.5. “Too Big to Fail”8:06

6.6. Globalization in capital markets and its challenges7:46

6.7. What has been done to fight the crisis? New regulation, QE, negative interest rates18:46

6.8. The first signs of “de-globalization”. Brexit. Problems and challenges7:58

6.9. Wrap-up and conclusions. Positive messages and practical advice10:34

与讲师见面

Konstantin Kontor
Director and Professor of Finance and Strategy
American Institute of Business and Economics (AIBEc)

Well, we are coming progressively close to the end of this course.

And in this episode, I will talk about some trends that

have been observed in the markets recently that seem to contradict

the global trend that we've observed before.

Namely, we said that globalization clearly is the reigning trend in this world.

We see that there are lots of great things concerned with globalization.

People, goods and services, money, technology, ideas, they all travel freely.

And the world is becoming sort of a,

if we quote the book Funky Business that was written 20 years ago.

But they said that we will be living in the global virtual village.

Well, that is not exactly what happened.

But we do see that there was a march of globalization

over countries, markets, and societies.

And that is great.

However, unfortunately, in the wake of the latest crisis that,

like I said the peak was in 2007 and 2008,

we saw certain things that challenged this trend.

And although they're only signs of this countering trend of deglobalization,

if you will, I believe this is worthwhile mentioning that.

Because most of the questions in this area are now unanswered,

or sometimes even not posed.

But it will influence significantly the shape of global

capital markets in the years to come.

Now the key story here is that, so

I would put quoted deglobalization.

Now the problem is that the crisis hit hard.

Now you can say, so what?

Why is it linked to this?

The situation is as follows.

When the market was not so globalized,

when all countries or groups of countries were on their own,

then they could use some instruments to

reduce the negative impact of the crisis on their economies and their markets.

However, when countries started to be members of one

specific union, and clearly, this is taken to the extreme in the eurozone,

where countries are very much different in their levels of development.

One thing is Germany, the other thing is smaller countries, like Greece, or maybe,

some Baltic countries.

And clearly, their level of economic development and

their level of economic power is drastically different.

Still, they use the same currency, which is the Euro.

And it can be shown, this goes beyond the scope of this course.

It is studied in some economic courses that if you have more

freedom over your own currency, then you can devalue.

And by doing so, you can maybe reduce the negative

influence of the crisis situation of crisis trends.

The countries within the eurozone,

they were no longer at this time equipped with these tools.

Because like I said, they we're different, but

they we're still using the same currency.

So this tool was no longer available to them.

Now that, in itself, unfortunately resulted in the next thing.

People started to be sort of unsatisfied with what the authorities and

the regulators do in order to fight against the crisis.

And that, in itself, unfortunately resulted in the fact that sometimes

people started to think, well, maybe something is going wrong here.

Maybe our elites are not the ones who know the answer to these challenges.

And all that resulted in the wave of anti-elite protests, if you will.

It all started with the referendum is Scotland to leave the United Kingdom.

And that was sort of a false alarm because the people voted to stay.

But then soon after, it was the Brexit in the June of 2016.

Well, now, Brexit is reality.

It officially started in March 2017.

And this is still the process that opens up some

speculation in terms of what's going on,

how that will influence the development of capital markets in Europe and globally.

Again, so this, unfortunately,

is the area when there are many more questions than answers.

Then, to some extent, people said that the US election results,

they were also sort of against the global trend, if you will.

Well, now the situation is less clear, and maybe this is sort of more adapted,

or will become more adapted, but that remains to be seen.

Then there was also a referendum in Italy,

in which of the majority of population basically voted

against what was thought to be this global trend again.

And all that sends some signals that people are not very much satisfied.

And unfortunately, people and governments and

regulators, they have a very vague idea what can be done.

Because it doesn't seem to be that most of these societies and

markets will go back to what was before.

Again, you cannot enter a river twice.

But it doesn't seem to be that this is such

a huge challenge to reverse globalization.

But clearly, some new answers to the challenges must be found.

And that is also an important thing in our understanding of capital markets.

Again, unfortunately, I cannot provide any positive answers.

We are now witnessing that new challenges keep popping up.

And they keep becoming potentially not only challenges,

but I would say problematic issues.

So it's important to incorporate that into the big picture.

And oftentimes when people say, well, we can ignore that.

This is just a temporary thing.

But that temporary may stay for some time and

may influence the development of markets significantly.

So that was sort of a observation to keep that in mind too.

And now we are coming to the next final episode of this course,

in which I will wrap everything up.

And we'll provide some positive messages for you.

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