[MUSIC] Let's get started on these issues with our panel of experts. The first issue that I want to raise is the external influences on Chinese foreign policy. The first thing we have to think about is the structure of the international system. And whether the system is hegemonic, with one power, multipolar, bipolar, because this will affect how states respond to the world. They'll look around and say, these powers, do they have external alliances? Are those alliances threatening me? And in this case, we've got the US with its powerful Asian alliances and its European alliances. We can get big changes in the global economy, financial crises, which can have huge impact on a state which may be trying to use export led growth. Can't do it if no one's buying your products. The international system has norms and rules that states are expected to follow, and if you don't follow them you could get punished, you could get sanctioned. And so those also are major constraints upon a state's foreign policy behavior. And the last point I would make is really the state's location in terms of its geophysical position within the world. Is it a coastal state? Is it surrounded by islands? Does it have to go through as we'll see the Straits of Malacca to get its energy shipped in? So, let's turn to these questions. Okay Baohui, so what are the key international forces affecting Chinese foreign policy? >> Well I tend to think that the international system itself is the principle driver of China's foreign policies. In fact, international system is the main driver of almost every country's foreign policies. And this is a key insight of so called realism, which is the most influential perspective in analyzing internal relations. According to this perspective the international systems are anarchic. And so states, first of all, care about their security. >> Anarchic, no form, no government. >> Exactly. And therefore within the system of anarchy, every country wants to have power, and their foreign policy's main agenda is to acquire power and acquire influence. And this has in fact been China's main objective since Deng Xiaoping. The main objective, his grand strategy is to let China rise. What does it mean, rise? To become more powerful. And this has been the consistent Chinese foreign policy objective ever since Deng Xiaoping. And the President Xi Jinping, now champions that goal in the form of the China Dream, which is to so called revive China's power and a status international system. So I tend to think that China's foreign policy is firstly shaped by the international system. >> Richard what do you think about that? >> I think I generally agree what Baohui have said. International system is anarchy. And then China have to respond to this anarchical situation, and China's foreign policy in many ways is seeking more power for his own national interest. But, we have to also look at international system. It's not just based on the distributional power, but also it is, there's a normative structures. There's international organizations and institutions that set rules and the basic principles for countries to conduct their foreign policy. And the other things you have to look at is, the China today is deeply integrated into world economy. And actually, China, last 40 years, its open door foreign policy, have benefit from global economic systems. So, China have no need to break up these systems. China benefited. China need to contribute to international institution buildings. >> But as it gets. >> And then China have to play by the rule. >> But as it gets more power, maybe it'll want to rewrite those rules. >> On the economic side, I would say China would have less incentive to break it up, and it just want to maybe reform some part of the systems and make its own contribution. But on the political sides, maybe the current post-war international order, especially regional order, may be not quite in China's interest. China have a bigger incentive to change it. >> All right. We'll get to that. JP what do you think about China's role or willingness to abide by international norms? >> I think it first of all China has been more open to foreign influences than other socialist countries I'm thinking of these, sort of before the end of the Cold War. Because the Chinese economy is much more integrated in a world economy. At the same time, China is still ruled by one political system, the communist party, which has, which sees the world through its own lens. And, I think, China is influenced by some norms. Up to a point, but China has remained pretty ambivalent I think towards international norms. You can see China maybe endorsing economic norms more easily than political or security norms because of it's interest, because of its ideology, and because of the world order. If there's one major factor affecting China's foreign policy I would say it's the United States because it's kind of nemesis but also a kind of model. >> Nemesis? >> Nemesis. But also a kind of model which China would like to fully know in order to assert itself and become a world power with all the attributes of a world power. >> So really it's the hegemon. I mean it's sitting there with all that power now. >> Yes, I mean. >> All that influence, all those alliances. >> But that's the ambiguity of China as a physician in the world. On the one hand, China is very much in favor of a multi polar world, at the same time, it's stuck in kind of a binary opposition with the United States. And we're moving towards a new kind of bipolar world. Beyond the multi polar world that China would like to see taking shape around her. So, that's I think an important dimension of Chinese foriegn. >> So, Boauhi, to what extent do you think the United, I mean you talk about the system. But to what extent do you think the United States actually as the external actor is really affecting Chinese foreign policy? >> Well, I think it's actually a critical actor. China's rise has been going on in the context of the unipolar system. In other parts. >> One hour. >> Exactly. Germany in the late 19th century rose in the context of a multipolar system and the rise in that kind of context was easier. In theory if you rise in unipolar system, the unipole power in order to maintain global hegemony would have incentive to keep you dumb. So its quite a challenge for China to rise in that kind of context and therefore since the 1980's, China's one of the main foreign policy objective is to manage US, China policy. China wants to preempt US motives to contain China, and therefore a big chunk of China's foreign policy energies is spent on shaping US perception of a rising China. China would like the United States to believe that China is not a challenger, China merely wants to rise to benefit its own people. Rise is not designed to grab international leadership. And to some degree China has succeeded. >> Okay, Richard you were talking about international organizations. And I wondered can the US use those international? Since it's the hegemon wrote a lot of those rules, can it use those rules to contain China? Or I mean is that a major constraint, a major influence on China's foreign policy? >> Yes, actually China has participate in most of the post-war international institutions. Including the United Nation and then the old, the organizations affiliated with United Nations. And also participate in the regional organizations in Asia Pacific. And, China, also participate a lot of functional international institutions, and [CROSSTALK]. >> Post offices. >> [LAUGH] Post offices, IEA's. So this kind of a. >> What's the IEA? International Atomic Energy Agency. >> Right. So China benefit from these you know functional transaction with international world. But China recent years in my view pay more attention to regional organization. It is part of- >> Asean. >> Asean, APEC. Asean plus three plus one and also China trying to use this influence to shape regional economic order like, you know and negotiating the RECP, the RCEP. So you can see China trying to, China already be part of the international institution. And also want to shape the international institution. So China's foreign policy, a large part is to you know contribute, and have more input in international institution beauty, especially in the region surrounding China. >> J.P. we've got a minute on this question left, well what do you want to add? >> I would follow up on what Richard just said and to say to sort of underpin the fact that China's been pretty much active in the existing international organizations. At the same time develop a kind of ambivalent attitude, because it has selected the endowed norms of the United Nations and many of the instruments of the international community. If you take the example of the UNCLOS, The Law of the Sea. China has ratified the UNCLOS as early as 1996 but at the same time has made some reservations which are pretty critical because it refuses the need for settling disputes by arbitration. Preferring a bilateral negotiations with other claimants when China is in dispute with these claimants. And at the same time China has been active also creating new international organizations. The latest example being the AIIB, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which China initiated very much on the model of the United States' creation of the World Bank, the IMF after World War Two. >> So in some ways China is constrained by the international system but it's at the same time trying to adjust that international system. >> It is reshaping the international system. >> Reshaping the international system. Great, all right. Let's stop there for this question.
