[MUSIC] So, let's move to topic number three which is domestic politics and it's influence on China's foreign policy. Now, domestic factors include things like the level of competition among elites, public opinion at both a mass level and what we might think of the attentive public, the people who really pay attention to foreign policy, the media if they can write about it. We may have competition among political parties or within a ruling dominant party. In some societies, we would have elections as we're watching in the U.S., and people can discuss foreign policy. We can think about political economy also, industrial sectors that have particular interests, regions of the country that have over-seized connections with neighboring regions. All that can be very important. And a very, very big aspect is also the power of nationalism. It can push people, it can push leaders to be more assertive. Or, maybe can stop leaders from cooperating with specific powers. We also have the issue of interbureacratic within the government. We can have the bureaus fighting with each other, and then in many states the military itself is a dominant force in foreign policy. Okay JP, let's start with you. So, how does domestic politics affect foreign policy? >> I think domestic politics affects foreign policy in many different ways. I would say that contrary to democratic countries, the number of access at least on the paper influencing foreign policy in China is very small. You have the politburo of the Communist Party, you have the military, some regional leaders maybe, and some economic access. But, the range of access is narrower. Now, the big question is whether the public opinion itself is inter-effecting also Chinese foreign policy. And, among the major forces that will, of course, identify as you said in your introduction, nationalism has been a major factor actually used in foreign policy, acts as to push their own agenda, or to push out the envelopes of China. The, another factor is dispute among the elites. In particular, between civilian leaders, and ministry leaders. Or, between conservative, and reformists. >> The factions. >> Among the factions, for instance. Now, the question we need to ask also, is whether regime change will change Chinese foreign policy a great deal or not. Or, whether there will be a lot of continuity in China's quest for great power status. >> Regime change in >> In China >> Terms of the end of the communist party. >> Exactly. If, what democratic China, what kind of foreign policy democratic China would put together. Would it be very different? I think, if we take the example of the question of nationalism. Today, nationalism, the debate of nationalism, of course, is very much organized by the state. Constrained by the textbooks, propaganda. But, and so, at the same time, you've seen a problem nationalism, taking shape in China now. Which is more autonomous, but at the same time, sometimes it's utilized by the authorities, sometimes it's stopped by the authorities. And, one of the forces of the Chinese regime is to be able to stop the movement every time it goes too far, like the anti-Japanese demonstration in 2005, or the anti-American demonstration in 1999. Clearly China, the authority, were in a position to stop the movement when they wanted to. >> Okay. Bob Lay, What do you think? >> I have an opposite opinion. I'm a strict realist thinker. Which tends to emphasize, exactly, for realist thinkers the black box doesn't matter. >> What's inside the state. >> Because what's inside the state, the massive policies don't matter. Because countries' foreign policies, especially the foreign policy of great powers are predominantly shaped by internal factors, by international structure. And so, that's why no matter who's the Chinese leader, they pursue the same core objectives, okay? They don't vary very much. And so, within the United States, we see the same picture, whether they're a democratic president, or republican present, they pursue the same core objectives. Which is to maintain US global dominance. >> Well, sorry, but if you look at the difference between a democrat and the republican in terms in the invasion of Iraq, I think that's a huge difference. >> No, I think in 2003, a democratic President could have done the same because that is our national perception to time. They have a profound security challenge from terrorists. They have to take preemptive moves to take out those threats. >> I think Al Gore would have disagreed with you, but that's okay. >> So, basically, I don't think for a great power like China, domestic politics fundamentally shape their foreign policies. Their policies are primarily determined by their core objective, which is China should be a leader of the national system. And, actually we see a lot of instances that the Chinese leaders actually demonstrate strong abilities to fend off societal predators. For example, people say we shouldn't talk to the Japanese. But in fact President Xi is talking to the Japanese. He has met with him several times. So, this shows that regime has quite a bit of so-called autonomy from societal pressure. And in fact, every country, democracy or totalitarian, they all have quite a bit of autonomy from societal pressure. >> Okay, so, Richard, what do you think? You've got two different views here. Do you want to put forward your own position? >> Yes, I would disagree with Bob Way a little bit. I think foreign policy is the continuation of domestic politics in some extent. So I agree with JP, the rights of nationalism have a huge impact on Chinese foreign policy. And, he distinguished two types of nationalism, the state sponsored nationalism and then the popular nationalism. I think these years we see the rise of popular nationalism, and the state becoming more responsive to the rising nationalism. And then, the society becoming more attentive, as you said, attentive public and also more informed public about foreign policy issues. Here I can give you example. The rise of social media, especially among the young people, young netizens. They use the internet and they put remarks on the websites, and then that has huge impact on Chinese leaders. How they think and how they conduct foreign policy. >> I remember once when we heard a talk from a vice foreign minister who said that, the leader was then Hu Jintao, couldn't meet with Sarkozy, the President of France, because Sarkozy had just met with the Dalai Lama, and that the attacks on Sarkozy in Internet were just so strong. >> Yeah, they are becoming more responsive. [CROSSTALK] >> But, I think their country resembles of- >> Let Bob Way defend, go ahead Bob Way because it's two against one. >> The latest example coming from China's defense budget increase for the coming year. The societal demand is given China's security pressure in the East China Sea, South China Sea, China should increase it's military budget by 15%, even 20%. But, change in leadership can damage sufficient autonomy and then they decided that next year's budget, mutual increase is only 7 points. >> But, isn't that the result of a slow domestic economy which then says.. >> Well, we don't know >> You guys aren't talking about that but I raised that issue. >> It definitely proves that China's foreign policy issues are not dictated by popular demands or nationalism. >> I see. >> Yes, but you still have debates, just take the example of opening military bases outside of China. I think three or four years ago, it would have been impossible because the dominate view, the mainstream view in China, that would be bad for China's image. We see China is doing the same as the US, opening military bases overseas. That's going to be bad. Now the debate is over. China has opened a base in of course it's kind of a dual base, both civilian military, naval base. But, clearly China has had a debate about that. Now, the question of nationalism is tricky in China. The debate has been pretty biased giving much more leeway, much more space to the nationalist than to the anti-nationalist in China. In the individual behavior, most Chinese people are not nationalists. They buy properties in the U.S., the passport, they're dreaming of you know, having one foot in China, one foot overseas. So, they're not nationalists, they buy branded goods from France, and Italy, you name it. So, in their behavior, they're not nationalists. So, you have to be very careful and I think what the Democratic China would allow is a more balanced, open and pluralistic debate about the interests of the nation. How far should we put nationalism interest? >> And then, there are two issues here. >> Yeah. >> One is whether Chinese people are more nationalistic than people in a democracy. We have to have some factual- >> Measures. >> measures to prove that- >> Sure. >> And second, whether China's foreign policy is dictated by nationalism. That's a separate issue. >> Okay. >> And again, I don't see a strong connection at this point. >> Richard, last point. >> Dictate is too strong word. And, but definitely influenced by the public opinions. Let me put into the demand and supply side to look at this. There's a rising demand from the general public how the state should protect their interests, especially their interests overseas. As JP says, they are going all over the world. Over 3 million Chinese all over the world, working there, doing business there, studying there. So, the State needs to protect them. And then, they make a lot of noise online to ask the State to protect their overseas interests, and this is from the demand side. You can see there's more interaction between the state and the society, how that have driven the Chinese Chinese foreign policy. How China should look at their citizens' interests in a different corner of the world. >> Right, so this is different than domestic politics. This is society trying to speak out saying to the state you have to defend us, and that puts some pressure on the state. Thanks a lot guys.
