The course analyzes challenges faced by transition and emerging-market economies, i.e., those middle- and low-income countries, which have conducted market-oriented economic reforms and become integrated into the global economy since 1990s. It starts from a brief history of communist economic system based on central planning in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, its evolution and collapse at the end of 1980s/ early 1990s and subsequent transition to a market system in 1990s and 2000s. Then it analyzes experience of market reforms in China, India, other Asian countries, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America at the same period. Finally, it discusses the problems of contemporary global economy and global and regional economic governance with the special focus given to emerging-market economies and their role. By the end of the course you will be able to analyse emerging-market economies and economies in transition, taking into account their crucial characteristics and historical experience. Participation in the course does not require any preconditions, however, basic economic knowledge would be an advantage. In order to pass successfully this course you must score not less than 80% for each of six after module quizzes and complete the peer-assessed essay at the end of the course.
Transition countries and the EU
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来自 National Research University Higher School of Economics 的课程
Economics of Transition and Emerging Markets
87 个评分
National Research University Higher School of Economics
87 个评分
从本节课中
The role of external actors in post-communist transition and economic reforms in Asia
Dear students, In this module we will discuss the role of external actors (IMF, World Bank, WTO, EU, etc.) in economic and political transition in Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, cumulative results of transition in early/mid 2010s, specifics of Chinese economic transition and its major stages, market reforms in other Asian countries (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Mongolia, India). There will be 5 parts of video-lectures of 7-25 minutes length. You can use recommended literature to go deeper in learning this module. After you watch the video-lectures you are to complete the third quiz. We look forward to seeing you in class! Best wishes, Your course team.
与讲师见面
Marek DabrowskiProfessor
Department of Applied Economics
[NOISE].
[MUSIC]
Now we speak about the European Union.
It' succession process to the European Union and
other form of cooperation with European Union can offer to
transition countries and which can have impact on transition projects.
In fact its accession of less developed countries
to the European Union has long history before post-communist transition started.
Already, accession of Greece in 1981, of Portugal and
Spain in 1986, 1986 belonged to this group.
There were countries less developed which had background
of dictatorship economy, which were largely private but
quite closed, and, and not integrated with the rest of the world and
the rest of Europe, and those countries face a lot of
these kind of development challenges, for example, in education sphere.
However, that experience of 1980s of Greece,
Portugal and Spain was relatively limited as compared to
the next wave of enlargement which came in 2000 and 2010s.
I mean, 13 countries of Central-Eastern Europe and
Southern Europe would join EU subsequently in 2004, 2007, 2013.
Countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta,
Poland, Romania, Slovaka, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
And in the line waiting for Union membership, there are several candidates,
negotiating or negotiated candidates, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia.
Countries whose wait for
start of negotiation, but have already candidate status, Macedonia.
And potential candidates, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
And here, we see how this timetable looked in 1990s and 2000s.
The countries which we call in the previous part Luxemburg group,
Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus,
they started negotiation already in 1997, followed by so called Helsinki group.
Countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia.
And then in 2000 Croatia became the candidate and
completed negotiation in 2012 and became EU member in 2013.
It's very important to understand how this process works.
And it works through several stages of accession process.
So countries moving step-by-step from one status to another status.
The first step is negotiating and signing stabilization and association agreement.
This is how it's called now in respect to countries of former Yugoslavia,
Western Balkan countries.
Before, in respect to countries of Central-Eastern Europe and
Baltic countries, it was called Trade and Association Agreement.
But contract is pretty much the same.
There are agreements which include broad political cooperation agenda,
broad economic cooperation agenda, trade, free trade with the EU
subsequent adopting part of a key, and perspective of EU membership.
Next step is membership application.
Country which, which already is associate, associated with EU,
which implements stabilization association agreement, can apply for EU membership.
And after, membership application is discussed, consider by EU governing body,
European commission, European counsel, European parliament and will,
if country meets Copenhagen Criteria, it can obtain EU candidate status.
And let's see how this Copenhagen Criteria are formulated.
There are three criteria.
First of them is stability of institution guaranteeing democracy,
the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities.
So basic, democratic political freedom value.
The second one is related to economic sphere.
The existence of a functioning market economy,
as well as the capacity to cap, to cope with competitive pressure and
market forces within the Union, European Union.
And third one, it's encompassed various fields that relates
mostly to institution, ability to take on the obligation of membership,
including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
So this is obtaining the EU candidate status.
But obtaining the status does not mean automatic start of negotiation.
Some further criteria must be met.
So usually, one, two years after obtaining the EU candidate status,
country can start membership negotiations.
Some countries have to wait more like Turkey, six years, or
Macedonia waits already almost ten years.
But here, there are another kind of problem conflict between Macedonia and
Greece about country name country name of Macedonia.
When negotiation are open there is necessity to
negotiate 35 chapters, which lead to various spheres of so-called
that means existing body of EU law in various area.
Common market, free movement of services, free movement of people,
monetary union, regional policing and rural flow.
Fighting corruption et cetera, et cetera.
And all of them must be closed provisionally in order
to conclude EU membership negotiation process.
After concluding negotiations, the next step is signing accession treaty.
The treaty must be ratified, of course,
by country, acceding country and all incumbent EU members.
It's usually after ending negotiation.
These two steps, signing and
then ratifying accession treaty, treaty last around two years.
And that country enters the EU registered map.
But after accession, the job is not finished.
First in some cases, like Romania and Bulgaria,
there are some post-accession additional conditionally lead
to so-called cooperation and verification mechanisms, in case of
Bulgarian this concerns areas such as fighting corruption,
rule of law, justice administration, public administration, et cetera.
But usually, all countries, when they enter the EU,
they still have some transitory periods.
Working both sides so they are not allowed from the very
beginning participate in all freedoms like, for example, free movement of labor.
On the other hand, some of the most restrict temporary freedom of
chance of flood by foreigners from other EU countries.
Then is separate process of accession of Schengen zone and
accessions of economic and monetary union.
And this is why it takes several years.
Actually, conditions became complicated, more and more complicated along
the subsequent enlargement sites, for example, in Spain, Portugal,
and Greece mentioned before, they had much easier accession agenda because
actually, it was European economic community, it was much more limited.
There were less are areas of integration,
less common legislation, so the process was simpler.
And there were already with much more complicated in case of Central and
Eastern Europe.
And now becomes even more complicated and one must expect then
that conditionally will be more difficult during the next EU enlargement.
Why?
First of all, political reasons.
That is a kind of, of post-enlargement fatigue in both in old member states and
also some of new member states where not always idea to bring new members,
some of them representing lower level of GDP per capita.
Most candidates usually represent such lower level, levels is very popular.
Societies, especially in Western Europe are afraid of mass migration
of pretending to, say, welfare system by inserting of new member states.
So a lot of potential conflicts.
EU also faced last few years economic crisis, this is crisis not fully overcome,
so this also decreases appetite for enlargement process.
Most of current,
actual and potential candidates represents the region, Western Balkan region,
which experienced conflicts, serious conflicts in 1990s, and
not of these conflicts are overcome especially Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Kosovo, have several issue which must be resolved on a political front or
protection of minority, et cetera.
And those results clears that no more wholesale enlargements like this of 2004,
where ten countries were admitted of one day, May 1st,
2004 is an there will be country by country admission.
Individual admission.
And generally because of this political environment, new political environment,
because of economic crisis, because a lot of reluctance in
EU members stay against admitting new members and increasing body of Euro.
Carrots will be weaker for potential difficult conditions and stick stronger,
and less chance to obtain some wavers in the process.
But this also brings the entire process to the point where incentive for potential
new member can be weakened and can create actual anti-accession backlash,
as observed in some periods of time time in Turkey with general support for
EU integration heavily decrease since early 2000s.
But again, so basically, hopefully, it's not completely gone, but
this very well illustrates that if this balance between carrots and
sticks change to much towards sticks
this may discourage potential candidates from accession process.
And also, it's important to understand what kind of offer is on the table
to other countries, to Central-Eastern Europe and former Yugoslavia.
Meaning countries of former Soviet Union and CIS countries.
Until some point actually, there was no serious offer.
But for the last five,
six years, there is EU Eastern Partnership Initiative,
which offers countries of Europe and
part of the former Soviet Union in some form, also Russia.
Association agreements in political sphere deepen
comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and threaten the economic field.
Possible visa facilitation, beginning of visa
liberalization that was the first CIAs countries obtain.
If non-visa regime is a Moldova,
then the program called Comprehensive Institution-Building Program
to strengthen institutions and transform governors.
And these are the main components of this Eastern Partnership Offer,
but we must also understand that's not addressed to Central Asia.
So this group of transition countries, or former transition countries,
former centrally planned economy, I exclude from this offer.
In the next part we'll speak about where Central-Eastern Europe and
former Soviet Union are after 20 years of transition in the early 2010s,
and what kind of challenges face its farther development road.
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