[NOISE]. [MUSIC] Now we speak about the European Union. It' succession process to the European Union and other form of cooperation with European Union can offer to transition countries and which can have impact on transition projects. In fact its accession of less developed countries to the European Union has long history before post-communist transition started. Already, accession of Greece in 1981, of Portugal and Spain in 1986, 1986 belonged to this group. There were countries less developed which had background of dictatorship economy, which were largely private but quite closed, and, and not integrated with the rest of the world and the rest of Europe, and those countries face a lot of these kind of development challenges, for example, in education sphere. However, that experience of 1980s of Greece, Portugal and Spain was relatively limited as compared to the next wave of enlargement which came in 2000 and 2010s. I mean, 13 countries of Central-Eastern Europe and Southern Europe would join EU subsequently in 2004, 2007, 2013. Countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovaka, Slovakia, and Slovenia. And in the line waiting for Union membership, there are several candidates, negotiating or negotiated candidates, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia. Countries whose wait for start of negotiation, but have already candidate status, Macedonia. And potential candidates, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. And here, we see how this timetable looked in 1990s and 2000s. The countries which we call in the previous part Luxemburg group, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, they started negotiation already in 1997, followed by so called Helsinki group. Countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia. And then in 2000 Croatia became the candidate and completed negotiation in 2012 and became EU member in 2013. It's very important to understand how this process works. And it works through several stages of accession process. So countries moving step-by-step from one status to another status. The first step is negotiating and signing stabilization and association agreement. This is how it's called now in respect to countries of former Yugoslavia, Western Balkan countries. Before, in respect to countries of Central-Eastern Europe and Baltic countries, it was called Trade and Association Agreement. But contract is pretty much the same. There are agreements which include broad political cooperation agenda, broad economic cooperation agenda, trade, free trade with the EU subsequent adopting part of a key, and perspective of EU membership. Next step is membership application. Country which, which already is associate, associated with EU, which implements stabilization association agreement, can apply for EU membership. And after, membership application is discussed, consider by EU governing body, European commission, European counsel, European parliament and will, if country meets Copenhagen Criteria, it can obtain EU candidate status. And let's see how this Copenhagen Criteria are formulated. There are three criteria. First of them is stability of institution guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities. So basic, democratic political freedom value. The second one is related to economic sphere. The existence of a functioning market economy, as well as the capacity to cap, to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union, European Union. And third one, it's encompassed various fields that relates mostly to institution, ability to take on the obligation of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union. So this is obtaining the EU candidate status. But obtaining the status does not mean automatic start of negotiation. Some further criteria must be met. So usually, one, two years after obtaining the EU candidate status, country can start membership negotiations. Some countries have to wait more like Turkey, six years, or Macedonia waits already almost ten years. But here, there are another kind of problem conflict between Macedonia and Greece about country name country name of Macedonia. When negotiation are open there is necessity to negotiate 35 chapters, which lead to various spheres of so-called that means existing body of EU law in various area. Common market, free movement of services, free movement of people, monetary union, regional policing and rural flow. Fighting corruption et cetera, et cetera. And all of them must be closed provisionally in order to conclude EU membership negotiation process. After concluding negotiations, the next step is signing accession treaty. The treaty must be ratified, of course, by country, acceding country and all incumbent EU members. It's usually after ending negotiation. These two steps, signing and then ratifying accession treaty, treaty last around two years. And that country enters the EU registered map. But after accession, the job is not finished. First in some cases, like Romania and Bulgaria, there are some post-accession additional conditionally lead to so-called cooperation and verification mechanisms, in case of Bulgarian this concerns areas such as fighting corruption, rule of law, justice administration, public administration, et cetera. But usually, all countries, when they enter the EU, they still have some transitory periods. Working both sides so they are not allowed from the very beginning participate in all freedoms like, for example, free movement of labor. On the other hand, some of the most restrict temporary freedom of chance of flood by foreigners from other EU countries. Then is separate process of accession of Schengen zone and accessions of economic and monetary union. And this is why it takes several years. Actually, conditions became complicated, more and more complicated along the subsequent enlargement sites, for example, in Spain, Portugal, and Greece mentioned before, they had much easier accession agenda because actually, it was European economic community, it was much more limited. There were less are areas of integration, less common legislation, so the process was simpler. And there were already with much more complicated in case of Central and Eastern Europe. And now becomes even more complicated and one must expect then that conditionally will be more difficult during the next EU enlargement. Why? First of all, political reasons. That is a kind of, of post-enlargement fatigue in both in old member states and also some of new member states where not always idea to bring new members, some of them representing lower level of GDP per capita. Most candidates usually represent such lower level, levels is very popular. Societies, especially in Western Europe are afraid of mass migration of pretending to, say, welfare system by inserting of new member states. So a lot of potential conflicts. EU also faced last few years economic crisis, this is crisis not fully overcome, so this also decreases appetite for enlargement process. Most of current, actual and potential candidates represents the region, Western Balkan region, which experienced conflicts, serious conflicts in 1990s, and not of these conflicts are overcome especially Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, have several issue which must be resolved on a political front or protection of minority, et cetera. And those results clears that no more wholesale enlargements like this of 2004, where ten countries were admitted of one day, May 1st, 2004 is an there will be country by country admission. Individual admission. And generally because of this political environment, new political environment, because of economic crisis, because a lot of reluctance in EU members stay against admitting new members and increasing body of Euro. Carrots will be weaker for potential difficult conditions and stick stronger, and less chance to obtain some wavers in the process. But this also brings the entire process to the point where incentive for potential new member can be weakened and can create actual anti-accession backlash, as observed in some periods of time time in Turkey with general support for EU integration heavily decrease since early 2000s. But again, so basically, hopefully, it's not completely gone, but this very well illustrates that if this balance between carrots and sticks change to much towards sticks this may discourage potential candidates from accession process. And also, it's important to understand what kind of offer is on the table to other countries, to Central-Eastern Europe and former Yugoslavia. Meaning countries of former Soviet Union and CIS countries. Until some point actually, there was no serious offer. But for the last five, six years, there is EU Eastern Partnership Initiative, which offers countries of Europe and part of the former Soviet Union in some form, also Russia. Association agreements in political sphere deepen comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and threaten the economic field. Possible visa facilitation, beginning of visa liberalization that was the first CIAs countries obtain. If non-visa regime is a Moldova, then the program called Comprehensive Institution-Building Program to strengthen institutions and transform governors. And these are the main components of this Eastern Partnership Offer, but we must also understand that's not addressed to Central Asia. So this group of transition countries, or former transition countries, former centrally planned economy, I exclude from this offer. In the next part we'll speak about where Central-Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union are after 20 years of transition in the early 2010s, and what kind of challenges face its farther development road. [SOUND] [MUSIC]
