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5.6 Le Grand Barrage de la Renaissance en Éthiopie: une source de conflit ou une base pour une coopération dans le bassin du Nil?

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5.6 Le Grand Barrage de la Renaissance en Éthiopie: une source de conflit ou une base pour une coopération dans le bassin du Nil?

Nous voici arrivé(e)s au dernier module de ce cours, module dédié aux conflits et à la coopération autour des ressources en eau. Afin de mieux comprendre les interactions des acteurs autour d’un même bassin versant, nous vous présenterons le cadre théorique de l’hydro-hégémonie. Ce dernier sera illustré grâce au cas du bassin du Nil, où nous analyserons les relations entre l’Égypte, pays le plus en aval, avec les autres États riverains. Ensuite, nous présenterons différents mécanismes institutionnels favorisant la coopération entre États, tels que les organismes de bassin, avec les cas de l’Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Sénégal et la Commission du Mékong. Ce module se terminera sur le rôle du droit international de l’eau dans la coopération liée à l’eau. Un quiz clôturera ce module et équivaut à 20% de la note finale. Pour le réussir, vous devez avoir au moins 80% de réponses correctes. Nous espérons que ce cours vous a apporté(e)s des perspectives intéressantes et vous a donné envie d’aller plus loin dans le domaine de la gestion de l’eau. Nous vous remercions de votre participation !

Aujourd’hui la gestion de l’eau se trouve confrontée à de nouveaux défis tels que le changement climatique ou les conséquences des activités anthropiques. Les acteurs publics ou privés dans ce domaine doivent développer de nouvelles compétences pour mieux gérer le cycle de l’eau « dans son ensemble ». Par conséquent, l’objectif de ce MOOC est de comprendre les problèmes touchant à la gouvernance de la ressource en eau. Ce cours définira tout d’abord ce qu’est une ressource et plus particulièrement l’eau, son usage, les activités qui y sont rattachées ainsi que les conflits éventuels. Le cours portera plus en détail sur la gestion de l’eau en analysant les différents types de droits et devoirs qui entrent en jeu tels que le développement d’une réglementation multi-sectorielle et d’une approche de gestion par bassin versant. A l’issu de ce cours, notre objectif est de vous permettre 1) d’identifier les principaux enjeux et stratégies de gestion de la ressource en eau ; 2) d’acquérir des clés de lecture pour comprendre les variables (environnementales, institutionnelles, et politiques) influençant la ressource et nécessitant des ajustements en terme de gestion. Ce cours a été développé par le Pôle Eau Genève. A côté des chercheurs de l’Université de Genève issus de différentes facultés, des chercheurs d’autres universités et centres de recherche interviendront dans ce cours ainsi que des praticiens confrontés au quotidien à la dimension politique de la gestion de l’eau. Ce MOOC est destiné à toutes personnes intéressées par le secteur de l’eau. Vous n’avez pas besoin de formation préalable pour suivre notre programme. Les réflexions présentées dans ce cours se veulent transposables à différents contextes et échelles d’analyse. Ce cours est aussi disponible avec des sous-titres anglais sur: www.coursera.org/learn/watermanagement Ce MOOC fait partie des trois cours soutenu par le Pôle Eau Genève et l’Université de Genève en compagnie des MOOCs en « Droit International de l'Eau Douce » (www.coursera.org/learn/droit-eau) et en « Services écosystémiques : une méthode pour le développement durable » (www.coursera.org/learn/ecosystem-services). Ce cours est financé par le Programme Global Eau de la Direction du développement et de la coopération suisse (DDC).

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教学方

Christian Bréthaut
Assistant Professor
Géraldine Pflieger
Professeure associée

脚本

[MUSIC]

So hello and welcome to this new topic on water as a source of conflict corporation.

In the next few minutes we'll be speaking about the largest infrastructure project

being constructed on the Nile now.

Which is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and try to examine its impact

on relations between Biberian countries, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia.

But to start with, what is the Renaissance Dam and

why is it important to study its impact on relations between nine states?

The Renaissance Dam is a grand hydropower project

being constructed on the Blue Nile.

Some 20 kilometers upstream, the border is with Sudan with a height

of 145 meters, a reservoir of storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meter.

A power installed capacity of 6,000 megawatt

at a cost of about $4.8 billion US.

Ethiopia started launching this project in April 2011.

So far about 42% of the project has been completed.

And when it is fully competed in 2017 it will

be the largest hydro-powered project in Africa.

The project caused lots of tension between eastern Nile countries especially between

Egypt and Ethiopia.

The ousted Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi threatened to use violence against

the project if it decreased the share of Egypt of Nile waters.

And in return Ethiopian defense minister said that his country is ready to defend

the project against any attack.

The project also made the headlines in leading media outlets with some of them

asking whether Ethiopia's intention was to dry the Nile in Egypt.

And others even speculating that the project will lead to a water war

between the two countries.

But on the other hand, the project also opened an interesting discussion

about how can the country benefit in a shared river

without negatively affecting the right of other countries to use the same resource.

And to be clear,

the question here is not whether Ethiopia has the right to build dams on the Nile.

Because Ethiopia already did that, and built smaller dams like the Tekeze Dam

which was completed in 2009 on one of the tributaries of the Nile.

But the question is, what kind of project and how it is built.

And here lies the sources of tension.

The first source of tension,

that Ethiopia started the construction of this dam in April, 2011,

just a few weeks after the January 25th revolution in Egypt, when Egypt was quite

busy dealing with the impacts of this tremendous domestic change.

And it was only a few weeks later when

a public diplomacy delegation from Egypt visited Ethiopia.

Followed by a visit by the interim Prime Minister that the three governments,

the Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese governments, agreed to form

an international panel of experts to examine the documents of the dam.

The second source of tension is that Ethiopia went

ahead with the construction of the dam even before this panel completed its work.

So when the panel of experts decided that more studies need to be conducted

in order to examine the impact of the project on downstream countries,

Ethiopia went ahead with the construction of the dam and

insisted not to halt the construction until these further studies are finalized.

The third source of tension has to do with the controversy about the benefits and

cost of the approach.

Of course the project is not without benefit.

Ethiopia would produce electricity for its own people,

77% of which have currently no access to electricity.

And since production will exceed demand,

Ethiopia will also be able to export electricity to neighboring countries.

The Ethiopian government made the arrangement with countries like Kenya,

Sudan and Djibouti to export electricity.

This may be one of the reasons why Sudan has actually

officially endorsed the project.

The benefits of the project may also be for

downstream countries especially for Sudan.

Since the project is quite large and the damage is quite big, it will actually

control flood and sedimentation and just enhance the operation of dams in Sudan.

And the benefits are not only economic, they're also political.

The Ethiopian government tried to market the project as a source of national

dignity, especially that is actually implemented by domestic funding.

But the question is, do all these benefits justify the environmental, economic, and

political costs of the project?

Well, the answer of this question is quite debatable.

Some people are asking about the economic rationale of directing $5 billion US,

which is about 10 to 15% of Ethiopian GDP, to a single project.

Some engineers are saying that the project will not

actually produce as much electricity as possible.

So for these engineers, the project is over-sized and

will only produce about 30% of the targeted power.

This is in addition to the economic and environmental impact.

International civil society organizations, like International Rivers,

has been quite critical to the environmental and

social impact of such a large project on the local community.

And they have been quite critical as well of the lack of participation from this

local community in the planning and implementation of the project.

Of course, a project with such a scale will have an impact on water flow and

power generation in downstream countries, especially the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

Especially if the huge reservoir of the dam will be filled in dry years.

And this fact was confirmed by the international panel of experts.

This leads some observers to ask whether the primary objective of the project

is to produce electricity or actually to control the flow of the Nile?

So all these sources do not mean that cooperation is impossible.

A recent development has been the signing of a Declaration of Principles between

Egypt which moderated, it stands from the Nile.

After the election of President Cici in June, 2014,

Sudan and Ethiopia are in Khartoum in March 2015.

The declaration includes some interesting and quite positive elements.

So it committed the three countries to implement

the recommendation of the international panel of experts' report.

It actually states that the three countries should cooperate in

defining the guidelines for the operation and the filling of the dam.

It committed Ethiopia to try to cause no significant harm to downstream countries.

And to negotiate compensation if harm's happened.

But on the other had it includes no reference to Sudan or

Ethiopia's acquired rights in the Nile waters, and it also

did not commit Ethiopia to reconsider the size of the dam and its huge reservoir.

So we can say that the declaration in itself

is not sufficient to ensure building confidence between the three countries.

It's only the translation of this political declaration

into mutually agreed technical agreement that will define

whether the Grand Renaissance Dam will be a source of conflict.

On the basis of cooperation.

And this will happen when a Dutch and a French companies,

which were actually selected by the three government conduct

the further study that were recommended by the international panel of expert.

And the three countries agree on the guidelines for the operation of the dam.

I hope you enjoyed this part, and I hope you will keep an eye on developments

concerning this important project on the mind.

Thank you.

[MUSIC]

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