The course aims to introduce the key assumptions of the international relations theory as a part of social science and as an analytic tool, focusing on the problems of war and peace, foreign policy decision-making, etc. The course combines historic approach and analysis of the modern political problems. The historic part shows the evolution of the international relations theory from being a part of political philosophy to its emergence as a special branch of political science, which is essential to understand the key ideas of the IR science. The lectures also include broad outline of the modern concepts and debates in the context of the contemporary political problems, such as rise of China and other emerging powers, threat of terrorism, US-Russia confrontation, etc. The lectures of the two outstanding Russian scholars and political analysts – Timofey Bordachev and Dmitry Suslov - cover such fields as the problems of international security and conflict resolution, international economic relations, foreign policy decision-making, global governance, the role of power in the IR.
How Russia sees the world - threats
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来自 National Research University Higher School of Economics 的课程
Understanding International Relations Theory
64 个评分
National Research University Higher School of Economics
64 个评分
从本节课中
Russia as a realist power
Russian foreign policy seems to be a mystery for many observers. The module proposes a realist interpretation of the Russian actions within the international system. Does it give an all out explanations?
与讲师见面
Timofei BordachevAssociate professor
Department of international relations
Dmitrii SuslovSenior Lecturer
Department of international relations, HSE
As I said before,
Russia sees not just opportunities but also threats and challenges in the world today.
And these negative components of the Russian perception of the world
is also a very profound determinant of Russian foreign policy.
So, what do these negative component consist of?
They consist of the following,
the current domestic turmoil in the United States
prevent any change of U.S. foreign policy towards Russia in
a constructive way and impede
US-Russian cooperation where it could really contribute to the interests of the sides.
Under Trump, the United States is not systemically anti-Russian but very unpredictable.
Moreover, it clearly prefers unilateralism,
disregards international law, and has
much less restraints on the use of force than under Obama.
The United States under Donald Trump approaches the others from the position of
strength and is physically unable to roll back and make concessions.
Trump must look strong.
And as a winner, he can't allow look weak.
And this is very dangerous situation in the US-Russian relations.
Then, the US traditionalist establishment and the elite
is unwilling to reconcile with the new reality,
with the necessity to adapt and is preparing for a post-Trump revenge.
Russian attitudes towards them is best expressed by
a familiar characterization of Bourbons after the restoration in France in 1815.
They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
The new ideological backlash in the United States is very likely after Trump,
and this ideological backlash will aggravate,
of course, US-Russian confrontation even more.
The United States will return to the policy of
regime change in general and towards Russia in particular,
increase support of Ukraine, and so on, and so forth.
And many Russian experts are seriously warned in 2016 that if Hillary Clinton had won,
the US-Russian military direct,
may direct military clash might become quite likely.
So, this situation might return.
New arms race and further military buildup
in Europe is very probable and basically going on.
NATO won't revise the Warsaw summit decisions and
the United States won't refuse to deploy missile defenses in Poland and Romania.
Russia will retaliate with its own military deployment.
And here we go, we face the prospect of the new arms race in Europe.
Next, there is a collapse of remaining nuclear arms control.
It is not excluded that the INF,
the Intermediate Range Missile Treaty is under question.
The new Star Treaty might fall as well
especially if the United States accelerates strategic missile defense policy.
The European Union is unable to reject its previous paradigm according to
which it is the EU is and should be the only pole of integration in wider Europe,
and all their other European countries including
Russia should be kind of concentric circles around the EU.
The EU is unable to recognize Russia and
the Eurasian Economic Union as the second pole of integration in wider Europe.
Middle East is just in the beginning of
profound destabilization and the problems there
will not end with the destruction of the Islamic State.
Russia is declining.
Economically, It is not booming and stagnating.
Its technological backwardness is increasing,
and demographic situation in Russia is bad and
sanctions are to stay for the next years to come for sure.
And for instance, Crimea related sanctions will might stay for at least several decades.
So, what kind of conclusions can we draw from this description.
We can say that on the one hand,
there is no need for Russia to change the fundamentals of
its foreign policy such as refusal to perceived participation in
the Western orbit or maintaining friendly relations with
the West as necessary preconditions for its great power status.
Western-Centrism in Russian foreign policy is indeed over.
Russia will continue its strategic focus on Eurasia
and continue struggling with the West for international order,
recognition of its great power status in terms
of relations being more important than their mood,
in terms of relations,
will be more important than their mood.
Thus, relations with the West will remain transactional and
largely confrontational and surely unfriendly.
Secondly, Russia feels itself as the right side of history.
There is no sense at all in Moscow that Russia is losing.
Instead, there are reasons to argue that Russia is
actually prevailing at least selectively and
the successes of Russia's operation in Syria
is the clear manifestation of this Russia's prevailing.
Russia does not consider its foreign policy to be outdated.
Instead, in the Russian perception,
Russian foreign policy is actually reflecting the emerging rule and
victory and many policies of Donald Trump are the latest manifestation to it.
So, in the Russian perception that is actually the EU
which is the big exception in the current international system,
not Russia, and the current international system is getting more and more realist.
But, on the other hand,
we can make a conclusion that Russia needs to prepare for a long term period of
unfriendly and even adversarial relations with the West and quite
likely for a further aggravation of this confrontation up to a direct military threat.
Domestic situation in the United States prevents using the opportunity that
emerge with the Donald Trump administration to overcome the US-Russian confrontation.
And after Trump, whether he leaves in 2020 or before,
it is likely to become much worse.
Thus, Russia makes a conclusion that it needs to invest in military, in deterrence,
and in relations with the rest to keep the balance,
the China, India, Iran or some European countries.
Look, these are just the paradigmical,
the classical elements of a realist foreign policy,
philosophy and the realist conduct.
