Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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来自 University of Houston System 的课程

Math behind Moneyball

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Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

从本节课中

Module 7

You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.

- Professor Wayne WinstonVisiting Professor

Bauer College of Business

Okay, let's talk about the hack a Jordan idea or hack a Dwight idea,

which has really bothered a lot of us during the Clippers/Rockets series where

the games took longer than watching the movie version of War and Peace sometimes.

Okay, so let's suppose you foul DeAndre Jordan,

if you're the Rockets, and he shoots 43%.

So he's going to make on two free throws if they're in the bonus,

an average of 0.86 points.

Okay, so you unitedly say the Clippers score 1.12 points per possession.

So if you hack a Jordan, you're going to gain 0.26 points per possession.

That's the naive analysis but John Ezekowitz on 538.com,

I think the post was April 29, 2015,

did a great job of looking at this the right way.

So let's try and go through his analysis.

So if you foul Jordan, okay, he's going to make 0.86 points on the free throws.

Nobody's going to argue with that if he shoots to 0.43%.

Okay.

But what you have to realize, okay, basically the other team gets the ball,

let's say it's the Rockets, they're not going to get the ball on a fast break

because you can set up the half court defense.

It's not like you get a rebound or turn the ball over.

The other team has a better chance to score, and

if he looked at basically how much better is your defense when you're in the half

court set then basically when basically possession results in a turnover or

defensive rebound off a missed field goal.

And you're 0.04 points better on defense because the defense can set up on

half court.

So, you should add 0.04 points to that 0.86 points.

Okay, so you're now up to 0.9.

Okay, now here's the big thing.

Okay, suppose De Andre misses the second shot.

Okay, the Clippers can get the rebound.

And it turns out, according to John,

they're really good at getting the rebound.

They rebound 21% of the missed shots that De Andre's missed second free throws.

When on the average teams get the rebound on 12% of missed free throws,

probably because they expect them to miss and

they practice this because they know this is coming.

And the thing is you're way better than the one point of possession when you get

a rebound, when you get a possession after an offensive rebound.

Turns out the Clippers are 1.36 points per possession.

Okay, so you take the 57%,

how many expected points would you get off those rebounds if you're the Clippers?

57% of the time the second shot's missed, okay, and

21% of the time you rebound it and you'll average 1.36 points.

Multiply those three you get 0.17 points.

Okay, and so you would add that to the 0.04 so you have 0.21 plus 0.0,

you have sorry 0.16 plus 0.04 is 0.2 added to the point 0.86 is 1.06 points

per possession compared to the 1.04 if you let the Clippers play the half court.

So fouling DeAndre really cost the opponents 0.02 points per possession

instead of basically helping them by 0.26.

Okay, now if they disrupt their flow and stuff like that and I'm not going to

comment on that, but you can see when you do a more careful analysis,

the advantage of Hackett-DeAndre or Hackett-Dwight basically evaporates.

Okay?

So thank God we may not have to see this hack or

whatever, much more if teams get more analytic savvy on it.

I hope,