So if you foul Jordan, okay, he's going to make 0.86 points on the free throws.

Nobody's going to argue with that if he shoots to 0.43%.

Okay.

But what you have to realize, okay, basically the other team gets the ball,

let's say it's the Rockets, they're not going to get the ball on a fast break

because you can set up the half court defense.

It's not like you get a rebound or turn the ball over.

The other team has a better chance to score, and

if he looked at basically how much better is your defense when you're in the half

court set then basically when basically possession results in a turnover or

defensive rebound off a missed field goal.

And you're 0.04 points better on defense because the defense can set up on

half court.

So, you should add 0.04 points to that 0.86 points.

Okay, so you're now up to 0.9.

Okay, now here's the big thing.

Okay, suppose De Andre misses the second shot.

Okay, the Clippers can get the rebound.

And it turns out, according to John,

they're really good at getting the rebound.

They rebound 21% of the missed shots that De Andre's missed second free throws.

When on the average teams get the rebound on 12% of missed free throws,

probably because they expect them to miss and

they practice this because they know this is coming.

And the thing is you're way better than the one point of possession when you get

a rebound, when you get a possession after an offensive rebound.

Turns out the Clippers are 1.36 points per possession.

Okay, so you take the 57%,

how many expected points would you get off those rebounds if you're the Clippers?

57% of the time the second shot's missed, okay, and

21% of the time you rebound it and you'll average 1.36 points.

Multiply those three you get 0.17 points.