案例学习：预测房价

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来自 University of Washington 的课程

机器学习：回归

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案例学习：预测房价

从本节课中

Ridge Regression

You have examined how the performance of a model varies with increasing model complexity, and can describe the potential pitfall of complex models becoming overfit to the training data. In this module, you will explore a very simple, but extremely effective technique for automatically coping with this issue. This method is called "ridge regression". You start out with a complex model, but now fit the model in a manner that not only incorporates a measure of fit to the training data, but also a term that biases the solution away from overfitted functions. To this end, you will explore symptoms of overfitted functions and use this to define a quantitative measure to use in your revised optimization objective. You will derive both a closed-form and gradient descent algorithm for fitting the ridge regression objective; these forms are small modifications from the original algorithms you derived for multiple regression. To select the strength of the bias away from overfitting, you will explore a general-purpose method called "cross validation". <p>You will implement both cross-validation and gradient descent to fit a ridge regression model and select the regularization constant.

- Emily FoxAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Statistics - Carlos GuestrinAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Computer Science and Engineering

[MUSIC]

Well we discussed ridge regression and cross-validation.

But we kinda brushed under the rug what can be a fairly important issue

when we discussed our ridge regression objective, which is

how to deal with the intercept term that's commonly included in most models.

So in particular let's recall our multiple regression model, which is shown here.

And so far we've just treated generically that there's some h0 of x,

that's our first feature with coefficient w0.

But as we mentioned two modules ago, typically,

that first feature is treated to be what's called

the constant feature, so that w0 just represents the intercept of the model.

So if you're thinking of some hyper-point issues,

where is it sitting along that y-axis?

And then all the other features are some arbitrary set of other

terms that you might be interested in.

Okay.

Well if we have this constant feature in our model, then

the model that I wrote on the previous slide simplifies to the following.

Where in this case when we think of our matrix notation for having And

different observations.

When we're forming our H matrix, the first column of that matrix,

that's the coefficient for the w0 term, the w0 coefficient.

So in this special case, that entire first column is filled entirely with ones.

So that we get w0 all along as the first feature for every observation.

Okay so this is the specific form that our H

matrix is gonna take in this case where we have an intercept term in the model.

Now let's return to our standard ridge regression objective that we

had where we said we have the RSS(w) + lambda times ||w||_2

squared where that ||w||_2 vector included w_0 for

the intercept term in the models where that's what it represents.

So a question is does this really make sense to do?

Because what this is doing is it's encouraging that intercept term

to be small.

That's what this ridge regression penalty is doing.

And do we want a small intercept?

So it's useful to think about doing ridge regression when you're adding lots and

lots of features but regardless of how many features you add to your model, does

that really matter in how we're thinking about the magnitude of the intercept?

Not really.

So it probably doesn't make a lot of sense intuitively

to think about shrinking the intercept

just because we have this very flexible model with lots of other features.

So let's think about how to address this.

Okay, the first option we have is not to penalize the intercept term.

And the way we can do that is to separate out that w0 coefficient

from all the other w's.

w1, w2 all the way up to wd, when we're thinking about that penalty term.

So we have residual sum of squares of w0, and

what I'll call w rest, all those other w's.

And when we add our ridge regression penalty,

the 2 norm is only taken of that w rest factor.

All those w's not including our intercept.

So a question is, how do we implement this in practice?

How is this gonna modify the closed form solution or the gradient descent

algorithm that we showed previously when we weren't handling this specific case.

So the very simple modification we can make

is simply defining something that I'm calling Imod.

It's a modified identity matrix.

That has a 0 in the first entry, and so in the one one entry,

and all the other elements are exactly the same as an identity matrix before.

So to be explicit our H transpose H terms is gonna look just as it did before but

now this lambda Imod has a 0.

So this is the entry.

Corresponding to the w0 index.

And then we have lambdas

as before everywhere else on this diagonal and of course still our 0s off diagonal.

Okay, now let's look at our gradient descent algorithm.

And here it's gonna be very simple, we just add in a special case that if we're

updating our intercept term, so if we're looking at that zero feature,

we're just gonna use our

old re-sqaures update.

No shrinkage to w0, but

otherwise, for all other features

we're gonna do the ridge update.

Okay so we see algorithmically its very straightforward to make this

modification where we don't want to penalize that intercept term.

But there's another option we have which is to transform the data.

So in particular if we center the data about 0 as a pre-processing

step then it doesn't matter so much we're shrinking the intercept towards 0 and

not correcting for that, because when we have data centered about 0

in general we tend to believe that the intercept will be pretty small.

So here what I'm saying is step one,

first we transform all our y observations to have mean 0.

And then as a second step we just run exactly the ridge regression we described

at the beginning of this module.

Where we don't account for the fact that there's this intercept term at all.

So, that's another perfectly reasonable solution to this problem.

[MUSIC]