[MUSIC] How did the political order evolve during the 16 year old Putin tenure? Well, at the onset, he acquired genuine popularity in as much as the contrast between the anarchy in the Yeltsin era, and the economic misery in the Yeltsin era, provided that they're in favor of a background to him. Because what happened, that in the beginning of his tenure, the economy started to pick up. This was partially because of the devalued Rubel, partially because the price of natural resources, in particular oil, was very favorable. And consequently, the rise of standard of living in the first decade of the century was very impressive indeed 6, 7% rise yearly. The per capita income quadrupled from 2000 to 2010 when a new economic downturn occurred from 5,000 to about 20,000. So this contributed to Putin's popularity. Also, he was willing to take measures against those who was in the way. There is a particular affair, which has been going on from the Yeltsin era into the Putin era, and that is the rebellious provinces of Chechnya. Chechnya is a Caucasian, small republic which was Muslim. In which in the course of the Yeltsin era, the Russians fought two wars, in which dreadful abuses occurred on both sides. Putin ultimately dealt with the Chechens in a remarkable way by installing of a young man, Kadyrov, who was his viceroy. And allowed this viceroy to do the most dreadful things in his own province and Kadyrov became a great supporter. The Chechens provided troops when they were needed, assassins when they were needed to take care of unpleasant characters who were there to speak up. And there was the country Russia, in which there was one province, which was administered differently than the rest, where Sharia was allowed to operate at the same time being part of Russia. And Putin's government financially supported Chechnya, partially in order to keep them quiet, partially in order to avoid that the Chechens would come into the major cities and create trouble for Russians. The political forums continued to be observed. Consequently, the Russian Constitution defined the terms of the president as two four year terms. And so in 2008, Putin's term came to an end. Now, since Putin's followers, Putin's people dominated the legislature, it would have been perfectly possible for the legislature to change the constitution and allow the president to be president for life, or at least around for a third or fourth term. But Putin chose not to do that, he continued to observe the form rather than the substance. And decided to choose a confederate Dimitry Medvedev to, in 2008, ran for the presidency and with the understanding that Putin would be named prime minister. Dimitry Medvedev became president because Putin chose him. He was a very different figure even though he was a Putin loyalist, they knew one another in their Leningrad days. He was a much younger man, he was born in 1965. And he was a much better educated man, much more of an intellectual. He also studied law. But also, he in fact taught in the law school in St. Petersburg. It is remarkable that he and Putin were great friends and loyal to one another. And so when Putin chose him because he counted on his loyalty. Now, whether at the very outset, they came to an agreement that he will be in office for four years. Or they arrived at this conclusion only later, it's unclear. Probably, my mind, they already knew that how this is going to go. But Putin as Prime Minister remained as much in power as he was before. In name, in theory Medvedev could have dismissed him because the president had such power. But this was simply out of the question given Putin's standing, support in the parliament and elsewhere. This was never a possibility. But Medvedev was regarded as a more hopeful figure might liberals. The fact that he was better educated, he could have give a voice for an anti-corruption campaign, which in the mouth of Putin would not have been as believable. In fact, during the Medvedev administration nothing of this sort happened. Some measures were introduced, such as not allowing people who had great role in the economy, also serve in government offices. In reality this could be circumvented, and not that much changed, aside from a more attractive verbiage. And then, when his office ended in 2012, It was made clear already in 2011 that Putin will run for office again. And that plus the elections which were taking place for the Duma which many people suspected that the elections in united Russia had only 53% of the vote, that there was much chicanery was going on. And in fact, it did not really have 53% of the vote, people came to the street and demonstrated. Now, on the one hand, this can be regarded as a hopeful sign, in as much as unlike in the previous years, people came to believe that they can make an impression. That is, it might be regarded as a hope or sign for the appearance of the public opinion, an organization. Now, those who spoke up, some of them, major figure, or Navalny was arrested, and other Nemtsov actually got himself assassinated. Russia during the Putin era, was a dangerous place for political opponents, and also journalists. One of the most signficant murder, assassination which took place was Politskaya who was a very courageous journalist who wrote against the Putin era. Against the Putin administration, the Putin regime. And also had a great deal to say about Chechnya, what is going on there. And her assassination who carried this out is unclear. But they are Putin, new or older, this assassination is unclear. But there is no doubt about it, that the Putin regime did nothing in order to find the culprits, and hold them responsible. And to that extent, Putin personally can be held responsible for the fact that Russia became a very dangerous place for journalists indeed. After Putin returned to office in 2012, we are dealing with a somewhat difficult, somewhat different situation than before. Inasmuch as opposition is voiced more frequently on the one hand. On the other, Putin conquered this by playing up Conservative, Nationalist, Orthodox, Christian themes which meant to find an echo in the Russians soul, and indeed it did. And this is contributing factor that however we can explain it, his popularity, measured by surveys, by reliable surveys, is remarkably high. To be sure it varies from time to time sometimes 60%, sometimes even as high as 80%. This is achieved by destroying opposition. This is achieved by identifying himself with the Nationalist, Conservative, Orthodox, Christian cause. And making it impossible for the opposition to organize. Let me turn now to economic and social changes, which occurred during the Putin administration. As I mentioned before, the first years, the first, let us say, the first administration in the Putin era which lasted until 2008, were economically successful. And Russia attracted foreign capital. At the same time, corruption has been a major issue. Now what are we to make of this? Putin took stats against the oligarchs, and indeed those oligarchs acquired their wealth in the course of the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet regime. Acquired their wealth by very questionable means. They were not a particularly attractive group. None of them had been ex-dissidents who acted on the basis of a well-considered liberal ideology. Now once these people were removed, one would have thought that this was a major step in curbing corruption, taking advantage of natural resources which the country provided. This however did not happen. What happened instead, that a new group came into being, just as much involved in government and in the economy as the previous one. And we are talking about the very small group of people, perhaps a dozen, who took over but the previous oligarchs have left behind. This group was different, in as much as Vladimir Putin's people. They were there because Putin put them there. And their loyal to the Putin was unquestioned and they were not above to cause political trouble. Morally speaking, if anything, they were a less attractive group than the one which they replaced. So the previous oligarchs one after another were danger and consequently found their way abroad. And some of them managed to take at least some of their wealth abroad. And much of it however, was given out to new oligarchs. There is one person, one of these oligarchs, who stand out, about whom it is necessary to mention in particular. And this is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, whose background was pretty much the same as of the other oligarchs he also made his money in the 1990s. First in selling computers and finally oil wealth. Yukos, he managed to create an oil company which was among the largest in the world. And he came to be, at the first years of the century, as the richest person in Russia. And the 16th richest person in the world. He was arrested. He only among the oligarchs, actually served time in prison. He was sentenced to nine years and later it was extended. And he remained in prison for over ten years. His case was different from that of the others. He was dealt with much more harshly than the others. And the reason for that, it seems that Khodorkovsky went through a genuine change. Namely, he wanted to use his wealth, first of all, to administer an enormous company. With a much greater degree of transparency and openness than it had been done before. And also, he used his wealth to support liberal, that is, anti-Putin forces. And consequently, he represented a danger to the regime. Which the other ex-oligarchs did not. And that is the explanation why he was dealt so much more harshly. What happened at Yukos? Yukos, the great company was taken apart. That may have been the reason, one of the reasons, that Putin acted against him. To take charge of this great wealth and give it to the state. And to people who supported him. So, what can we say about the state? What can we say about the degree of corruption? A very difficult topic, because one does not know where to begin. Corruption was rife in imperial Russia. Corruption was not eliminated in the Soviet regime, though it took different forms. And, of course, the 1990s was an era in which the state and corruption came to be synonymous. Now, of course, spectacular form of corruption obviously is most visible. In which the people close to Putin get state contracts, of which billions of rubles are being sent. But corruption exists, and has existed, in all levels of Russian life and Russian government. From the lowest to the highest. In the lowest in as much as you drive the car and you are stuck. It is a matter of course that you give money to the policeman who then lets you go. You establish a little kiosk in the street corner and bandits threaten you and you pay money for protection. And the reason that exists is because the state organizations are not reliable. You cannot trust them. You cannot trust the law courts, you cannot trust the police. And consequently, people make it the best what they can. It's very difficult to see how this corruption can be, if not eliminated, because corruption has always been with us. But at least its degree mitigated. And it has not been happening up to this point. The Russian economy has failed, ultimately. Failed in the sense that, at the outset in the early tenure of Putin. Putin wanted to imitate Western European models. Then he wanted to imitate Asians. Successful models such as South Korea, such as Taiwan, such as Singapore. However, unlike these highly successful economies, the Russian economy did not overcome autocracy. Meaning, it has not become integrated into the world economy. And partially, this is the result that so much of the economy is based on exporting raw material. This may be a curse. Because this freed Russian state from encouraging making major steps to reform the economy. To encourage private enterprise and risk taking. Which has not happened so far. This, I believe, can be regarded as the major failure of the Putin era, of the Putin administration. [MUSIC]
