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Scenario Planning

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企业成长战略

弗吉尼亚大学

4.7（355 个评分） | 16K 名学生已注册

课程 3（共 5 门，商业战略专项课程）

Get the tools you need to analyze, evaluate and recommend specific actions organizations can take to grow their value and avoid common growth pitfalls. Learn to determine how best to build value, whether by scaling existing markets, entering established markets or creating new markets through innovation and acquisitions. Apply these concepts in case studies of industry leaders JetBlue, Starbucks, Intel Corporate Venturing and Tata Motors.

查看授课大纲

您将学习的技能

Mergers And Acquisitions (M&A), innovation strategy, Strategic Thinking, Business Strategy, growth strategy

审阅

4.7（355 个评分）

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FM

Dec 13, 2017

As part of my path towards analyzing business in whose stock to invest, this course is a perfect addition to my tool belt.

SR

Sep 22, 2016

Very good followup course .. Doing this course provides an order and clarity to the thought process towards growth

从本节课中

Growth through Scaling

Strategic growth is intentional, proactive, and consistent with a company's purpose. Taking advantage of economies of scale--growing a business by doing more of what it's already doing--is a conceptually easy but operationally complex approach to business growth. In this module, you will learn the Scenario Planning tool to identify and evaluate opportunities to scale an organization. With this tool, you'll have an effective means to understand when and where to grow and how to get there. The Starbucks case provides an opportunity for you to practice this tool and apply key concepts.

Growth through Scaling9:39

Scenario Planning5:07

Scenario Planning Step 15:38

Scenario Planning Steps 2 and 37:58

Scenario Planning Steps 4 and 56:19

Module Lessons2:35

教学方

Michael Lenox
Senior Associate Dean and Chief Strategy Officer
Jared Harris
Samuel L. Slover Research Chair in Business Administration

脚本

We've been talking about growth through scaling.

And in particular, we've been focusing on the types of things a business ought

to take into consideration when it's considering and

weighing out potential growth opportunities.

So oftentimes when a business is considering scaling up its operations,

it viewed as making a bet on the future and history is sort of filled

with lots of example of companies who made particularly good or

visionary about on the future and others who gambled and lost.

So for example, Apple made a particular bet on a kind of smartphone that involved

a particular kind of interface that was very different from the Blackberry and

it turns out that that was really sort of prescient.

And a lot of the competitors of Apple have,

essentially imitated that same kind of interface and approach to smartphones.

On the other hand, plenty of firms have gambled and lost.

Think about the example of Borders Books and Music.

They focused on brick and mortar stores and

they heavily invested in music sales and compact discs and the like.

At a time when the industry was rapidly changing, both in publishing and

in music towards digital content and

those were the kinds of things that Borders underinvested in.

And so it's easy to look back and say, Borders made a bad choice.

They made a bad strategic decision, they made a bad bet on the future, but

here's the challenge.

It's awfully risky to bet your future strategy on your

ability to predict the future.

I mean, it's awfully hard to do that, it turns out.

If we were good at predicting the future,

we would always know which companies to invest in.

I mean, we'd always know who was gonna win the World Cup even.

I mean, this is something we're not very good at.

So and look in the context of that predictions are kinda a dime a dozen,

they're all around us.

So that makes strategy particularly difficult.

It's hard to predict exactly what the future's gonna look like and

we see this play out all the time.

So take, for example, right now, there's a lot of movement in the market

segment of personal computing devices and there's a question about what

the future of that particular market segment is gonna be?

Will we, for instance,

see more of a convergence onto one particular device that does everything?

Or will we continue to see a future where there are different kinds of devices?

There's your phone and your tablet and your laptop and they're different things.

Now different companies are making different bets on this sort of thing.

So this is the type of thing that makes strategy very difficult.

It doesn't lend itself to reducing a spreadsheet.

A spreadsheet can't tell you what the future is gonna look like.

So what to do?

The question is can we identify a framework that helps us instead of relying

on single point forecasting about a particular future?

Is there a kind of framework that might help us better anticipate a range of

possible futures and help us design our strategy in a way that's robust across all

of those possibilities and that leads us to scenario planning.

So what is scenario planning?

It's a framework that's essentially helpful in formulating a strategy.

That is robust to different future scenarios.

Given that we can't accurately always predict the future desires of

consumers, etc.

We need to be able to formulate a strategy that might

be robust across a number of different outcomes.

And in that sense, scenario planning is

essentially an alternative to making a single point forecast of the future.

Now what it does is pushes the strategist to essentially

step outside one's particular assumptions about the future and the question them.

And the thing is organization often have particular single point

predictions of the future baked in to their strategic plans and forecast.

They often times, make a particular prediction of the future and

then form their strategy around that, but scenario planning is a tool that allows

you to recognize that some predictions are uncertain.

And it might help you avoid group think as you form your strategy for

the future and specifically,

your strategy as it relates to scaling up your existing business operations.

So when do we do scenario planning?

And I'll just briefly point out that it can be helpful

at various stages of the strategy process.

It can be helpful in spurring creative ideas and

identifying potential strategies.

In other words, it can be helpful at the very beginning of a strategic process and

help generate unusual options to consider, but it also can be useful later

after you've formulated your strategy and you can use it then to sort of test for

robustness against a range of alternative futures.

So we're gonna focus a bit on scenario planning and how it can be useful

as an alternative to sort of single point forecasting of the future.

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