课程信息
4.7
227 ratings
54 reviews
Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life. What kinds of things will you learn? Why it’s usually a mistake to interview people for a job. Why it’s highly unlikely that, if your first meal in a new restaurant is excellent, you will find the next meal to be as good. Why economists regularly walk out of movies and leave restaurant food uneaten. Why getting your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated usually means your next season is going to be a disappointment. Why you might not have a disease even though you’ve tested positive for it. Why you’re never going to know how coffee affects you unless you conduct an experiment in which you flip a coin to determine whether you will have coffee on a given day. Why it might be a mistake to use an office in a building you own as opposed to having your office in someone else’s building. Why you should never keep a stock that’s going down in hopes that it will go back up and prevent you from losing any of your initial investment. Why it is that a great deal of health information presented in the media is misinformation....
Globe

100% 在线课程

立即开始,按照自己的计划学习。
Calendar

可灵活调整截止日期

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Beginner Level

初级

Clock

建议:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

完成时间大约为11 小时
Comment Dots

English

字幕:English, Ukrainian

您将获得的技能

Decision-MakingCost–Benefit AnalysisData AnalysisCognitive Bias
Globe

100% 在线课程

立即开始,按照自己的计划学习。
Calendar

可灵活调整截止日期

根据您的日程表重置截止日期。
Beginner Level

初级

Clock

建议:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

完成时间大约为11 小时
Comment Dots

English

字幕:English, Ukrainian

教学大纲 - 您将从这门课程中学到什么

1

章节
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning....
Reading
1 个视频(共 15 分钟), 3 个阅读材料
Video1 个视频
Reading3 个阅读材料
Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Help us learn more about you!10分钟
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems....
Reading
2 个视频(共 29 分钟), 2 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
Video2 个视频
Introduction to Correlation16分钟
Reading2 个阅读材料
Interactive Activity10分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz1 个练习
Lesson 1 Quiz18分钟
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants. ...
Reading
2 个视频(共 27 分钟), 2 个阅读材料, 4 个测验
Video2 个视频
The Law of Large Numbers: Part 215分钟
Reading2 个阅读材料
Interactive Activity10分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz4 个练习
Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5分钟
Pre-lecture Quiz5分钟
Lesson 2 Quiz12分钟
Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5分钟

2

章节
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error....
Reading
4 个视频(共 25 分钟), 3 个阅读材料, 2 个测验
Video4 个视频
The Draw-a-Person Test4分钟
Illusory Correlation6分钟
Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9分钟
Reading3 个阅读材料
Pre-lecture Activity10分钟
Interactive Activity10分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz2 个练习
Correlation Exercises10分钟
Lesson 3 Quiz10分钟
Clock
完成时间为 2 小时

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments....
Reading
3 个视频(共 42 分钟), 2 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
Video3 个视频
A/B Testing9分钟
Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17分钟
Reading2 个阅读材料
Pre-lecture Activity5分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz1 个练习
Lesson 4 Quiz26分钟

3

章节
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events....
Reading
2 个视频(共 40 分钟), 2 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
Video2 个视频
Base Rate22分钟
Reading2 个阅读材料
Pre-lecture Question5分钟
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz1 个练习
Lesson 5 Quiz8分钟
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind....
Reading
3 个视频(共 36 分钟), 1 个阅读材料, 2 个测验
Video3 个视频
Heuristics11分钟
Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11分钟
Reading1 个阅读材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz2 个练习
Pre-lecture Quiz5分钟
Lesson 6 Quiz22分钟

4

章节
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire....
Reading
3 个视频(共 38 分钟), 1 个阅读材料, 2 个测验
Video3 个视频
Sunk Costs10分钟
Loss Aversion12分钟
Reading1 个阅读材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz2 个练习
Pre-lecture Activity5分钟
Lesson 7 Quiz14分钟
Clock
完成时间为 1 小时

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems....
Reading
2 个视频(共 36 分钟), 1 个阅读材料, 2 个测验
Video2 个视频
Dialectical Reasoning16分钟
Reading1 个阅读材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Quiz2 个练习
Pre-lecture Quiz8分钟
Lesson 8 Quiz20分钟
Clock
完成时间为 16 分钟

Conclusion

...
Reading
1 个视频(共 6 分钟), 2 个阅读材料
Video1 个视频
Reading2 个阅读材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分钟
Post-course Survey10分钟
4.7

热门审阅

创建者 NPAug 7th 2017

A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.

创建者 SNMay 27th 2017

Excellent! A very informative course delivered in a very effective manner. I would highly recommend this course to all who have any interest at all in critical thinking.

讲师

Richard E. Nisbett

Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor
Department of Psychology

关于 University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

常见问题

  • Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.

  • When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

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