课程信息

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This course will provide you with a basic, intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life. 
The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. 

The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution".

You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!

学生职业成果

25%

完成这些课程后已开始新的职业生涯

22%

通过此课程获得实实在在的工作福利

可分享的证书

完成后获得证书

100% 在线

立即开始，按照自己的计划学习。

可灵活调整截止日期

根据您的日程表重置截止日期。

初级

完成时间大约为16 小时

英语（English）

字幕：英语（English）, 波斯语

您将获得的技能

Bayes' TheoremNormal DistributionProbabilityConditional Probability

学生职业成果

25%

完成这些课程后已开始新的职业生涯

22%

通过此课程获得实实在在的工作福利

可分享的证书

完成后获得证书

100% 在线

立即开始，按照自己的计划学习。

可灵活调整截止日期

根据您的日程表重置截止日期。

初级

完成时间大约为16 小时

英语（English）

字幕：英语（English）, 波斯语

教学大纲 - 您将从这门课程中学到什么

内容评分94%（4,061 个评分）

周

1

周 1

完成时间为 4 小时

Probability

In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring.

完成时间为 4 小时

7 个视频（总计 63 分钟）, 1 个阅读材料, 7 个测验

7 个视频

Welcome6分钟

Introduction5分钟

Definition and Rules12分钟

A First Look at Statistical Independence10分钟

Subjective Probabilities9分钟

Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law11分钟

Exercise7分钟

1 个阅读材料

Script: Part 12小时

7 个练习

Introductory Quiz2分钟

1.14分钟

1.26分钟

1.34分钟

1.44分钟

1.54分钟

1.64分钟

周

2

周 2

完成时间为 3 小时

Conditional Probability

The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W

完成时间为 3 小时

6 个视频（总计 54 分钟）, 1 个阅读材料, 6 个测验

6 个视频

Intuition8分钟

Definition7分钟

Multiplication Rules10分钟

Probability Tables9分钟

Bayes Rule10分钟

Exercise6分钟

1 个阅读材料

Script: Part 22小时

6 个练习

2.14分钟

2.24分钟

2.34分钟

2.44分钟

2.54分钟

2.64分钟

周

3

周 3

完成时间为 2 小时

Application

We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law.

完成时间为 2 小时

6 个视频（总计 80 分钟）

6 个视频

The Birthday Problem15分钟

The Monty Hall Problem11分钟

Structuring Risks: Part 113分钟

Structuring Risks: Part 28分钟

The Prosecutor's Fallacy15分钟

The Sad Story of Sally Clark16分钟

6 个练习

3.14分钟

3.22分钟

3.3.16分钟

3.3.24分钟

3.46分钟

3.56分钟

周

4

周 4

完成时间为 4 小时

Discrete Random Variables

In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution.

完成时间为 4 小时

8 个视频（总计 80 分钟）, 1 个阅读材料, 8 个测验

8 个视频

Discrete Random Variables11分钟

Expected Value12分钟

Measures of Dispersion8分钟

Application: Financial Model5分钟

Binomial Distribution17分钟

Application: Airline Overbooking11分钟

Exercise 16分钟

Exercise 25分钟

1 个阅读材料

Script: Part 42小时

8 个练习

4.14分钟

4.24分钟

4.34分钟

4.44分钟

4.52分钟

4.64分钟

4.76分钟

4.84分钟

常见问题

When will I have access to the lectures and assignments?
Access to lectures and assignments depends on your type of enrollment. If you take a course in audit mode, you will be able to see most course materials for free. To access graded assignments and to earn a Certificate, you will need to purchase the Certificate experience, during or after your audit. If you don't see the audit option:

The course may not offer an audit option. You can try a Free Trial instead, or apply for Financial Aid.

The course may offer 'Full Course, No Certificate' instead. This option lets you see all course materials, submit required assessments, and get a final grade. This also means that you will not be able to purchase a Certificate experience.
What will I get if I purchase the Certificate?

When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.
What is the refund policy?

You will be eligible for a full refund until two weeks after your payment date, or (for courses that have just launched) until two weeks after the first session of the course begins, whichever is later. You cannot receive a refund once you’ve earned a Course Certificate, even if you complete the course within the two-week refund period. See our full refund policy.
Is financial aid available?

Yes, Coursera provides financial aid to learners who cannot afford the fee. Apply for it by clicking on the Financial Aid link beneath the "Enroll" button on the left. You’ll be prompted to complete an application and will be notified if you are approved. Learn more.

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An Intuitive Introduction to Probability