About this course: This course will provide you with an intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life. The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution". You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!
Who is this class for: This course is aimed for all those who want to learn how to improve decisions that involve some uncertainty. The course is constructed such that no previous knowledge of statistics is required to follow it. The acquired knowledge can be applied in any field that involves uncertainty.
Taught by: Karl Schmedders, Professor of Quantitative Business Administration
Department of Business Administration
| Level | Beginner |
| Commitment | You will have to invest about 3-4 hours per module to acquire the taught knowledge. |
| Language | English |
| Hardware Req | You will need Excel or a similar spreadsheet program, such as the Google Docs spreadsheet. |
| How To Pass | Pass all graded assignments to complete the course. |
| User Ratings |
- Video: Welcome
- Reading: Script: Part 1
- Video: Introduction
- Video: Definition and Rules
- Video: A First Look at Statistical Independence
- Video: Subjective Probabilities
- Video: Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law
- Video: Exercise
- Video: Intuition
- Reading: Script: Part 2
- Video: Definition
- Video: Multiplication Rules
- Video: Probability Tables
- Video: Bayes Rule
- Video: Exercise
- Video: The Birthday Problem
- Video: The Monty Hall Problem
- Video: Structuring Risks: Part 1
- Video: Structuring Risks: Part 2
- Video: The Prosecutor's Fallacy
- Video: The Sad Story of Sally Clark
- Video: Discrete Random Variables
- Reading: Script: Part 4
- Video: Expected Value
- Video: Measures of Dispersion
- Video: Application: Financial Model
- Video: Binomial Distribution
- Video: Application: Airline Overbooking
- Video: Exercise 1
- Video: Exercise 2
- Video: Continuous Random Variables
- Reading: Script: Part 5
- Video: Normal Distribution
- Video: Calculating Normal Probabilities
- Video: Calculations with the Normal Distribution
- Video: Application of the Normal Distribution
- Video: Exercise
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One of the best MOOCs I've done. Prof Smedders is just excellent.
The way Karl taught the probability was more practical and intuitive rather than theoretical. I also liked the enthusiasm in teaching . As promised in the beginning of the course it was fun and i enjoyed a lot. Thanks once again for the cool stuff!!
Excelente course!
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VL
Down to earth explanation of probability basics, explanations are clear and mostly intuitively understandable. Great examples of Excel use for different probability tasks resolution. However use of Normal distribution Excel functionality is not needed when explaining 5 coins toss. It is more intuitive to show it using combination formula.