We live in an uncertain and complex world, yet we continually have to make decisions in the present with uncertain future outcomes. Indeed, we should be on the look-out for "black swans" - low-probability high-impact events. To study, or not to study? To invest, or not to invest? To marry, or not to marry? While uncertainty makes decision-making difficult, it does at least make life exciting! If the entire future was known in advance, there would never be an element of surprise. Whether a good future or a bad future, it would be a known future. In this course we consider many useful tools to deal with uncertainty and help us to make informed (and hence better) decisions - essential skills for a lifetime of good decision-making. Key topics include quantifying uncertainty with probability, descriptive statistics, point and interval estimation of means and proportions, the basics of hypothesis testing, and a selection of multivariate applications of key terms and concepts seen throughout the course.
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Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p?
伦敦大学
教学大纲 - 您将从这门课程中学到什么
周
1完成时间为 2 小时
Dealing with Uncertainty and Complexity in a Chaotic World
8 个视频 （总计 68 分钟）, 6 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
8 个视频
Welcome!3分钟
1.1 The Monty Hall Problem9分钟
1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10分钟
1.3 Uncertainty in the News9分钟
1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10分钟
1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!9分钟
1.6 Roadmap of the Course9分钟
Week One Summary and Key Takeaways4分钟
6 个阅读材料
1.1 The Monty Hall Problem10分钟
1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10分钟
1.3 Uncertainty in the News10分钟
1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10分钟
1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!10分钟
1.6 Roadmap of the Course10分钟
1 个练习
Week One Quiz20分钟
周
2完成时间为 3 小时
Quantifying Uncertainty With Probability
7 个视频 （总计 74 分钟）, 6 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
7 个视频
2.2 Simple Probability Distributions11分钟
2.3 Expectation of Random Variables13分钟
2.4 Bayesian Updating11分钟
2.5 Parameters9分钟
2.6 The Distribution Zoo11分钟
Week Two Summary and Key Takeaways4分钟
6 个阅读材料
2.1 Probability Principles10分钟
2.2 Simple Probability Distributions10分钟
2.3 Expectation of Random Variables10分钟
2.4 Bayesian Updating10分钟
2.5 Parameters10分钟
2.6 The Distribution Zoo10分钟
1 个练习
Week Two Quiz20分钟
周
3完成时间为 4 小时
Describing The World The Statistical Way
7 个视频 （总计 78 分钟）, 6 个阅读材料, 2 个测验
7 个视频
3.2 Data Visualisation11分钟
3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency13分钟
3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10分钟
3.5 The Normal Distribution11分钟
3.6 Variance of Random Variables13分钟
Week Three Summary and Key Takeaways5分钟
6 个阅读材料
3.1 Classify Your Variables!10分钟
3.2 Data Visualisation10分钟
3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency10分钟
3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10分钟
3.5 The Normal Distribution10分钟
3.6 Variance of Random Variables10分钟
1 个练习
Week Three Quiz
周
4完成时间为 2 小时
On Your Marks, Get Set, Infer!
7 个视频 （总计 78 分钟）, 6 个阅读材料, 1 个测验
7 个视频
4.2 Random Sampling11分钟
4.3 Further Random Sampling12分钟
4.4 Sampling Distributions11分钟
4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean11分钟
4.6 Confidence Intervals13分钟
Week Four Summary and Key Takeaways5分钟
6 个阅读材料
4.1 Introduction to Sampling10分钟
4.2 Random Sampling10分钟
4.3 Further Random Sampling10分钟
4.4 Sampling Distributions10分钟
4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean10分钟
4.6 Confidence Intervals10分钟
1 个练习
Week Four Quiz
4.5
46 条评论来自Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p?的热门评论
Hi,\n\nThe course taught about the basics and that's exactly what I was looking for. I learnt a lot, and so many things which I hear and read, became clearer and more meaningful. Thanks you!
Best course on the concepts of Probability and statistics , for the beginners. Dr.James Abdey provides lot of examples from the everyday life .
讲师
Dr James Abdey
Assistant Professorial Lecturer, LSEUniversity of London
关于 伦敦大学
The University of London is a federal University which includes 18 world leading Colleges. Our distance learning programmes were founded in 1858 and have enriched the lives of thousands of students, delivering high quality University of London degrees wherever our students are across the globe. Our alumni include 7 Nobel Prize winners. Today, we are a global leader in distance and flexible study, offering degree programmes to over 50,000 students in over 180 countries. To find out more about studying for one of our degrees where you are, visit www.london.ac.uk
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