We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians.
模型思维
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模型思维
课程信息
学生职业成果
17%
22%
您将获得的技能
学生职业成果
17%
22%
可分享的证书
100% 在线
可灵活调整截止日期
完成时间大约为33 小时
英语（English）
教学大纲 - 您将从这门课程中学到什么
Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects
In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller.
Aggregation & Decision Models
In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively.
Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models
In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well.
Tipping Points & Economic Growth
In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list.
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4.8
来自模型思维的热门评论
Great content and lectures, that possibly provides new dimensions to look/explain the situation in context, I guess I will comeback for references to continue with this journey in to 'Model Thinking'
The course presents a multitude of models that enable us to analyze human and systems behavior and interactions. By making implicit assumptions explicit we can understand real world processes better.
This is a fantastic course that I would recommend to anyone interested in learning how to think better. It introduced me to many topics that i want to learn more about. Thank you, Professor Page!
I learned much more than anticipated. In fact I've already started exploring areas of my work that model thinking would apply and how to use the tools presented in this class. Highly recommend!
Very interesting course. It isn't a hard course whatsoever but the concepts you learn are very fundamental and can be applied in so many domains. Very important to be a well rounded thinker.
Wonderful course and equally wonderful instructor. I really like how Scott builds up from a very simple model and by explaining the intuition behind how we got the math, explains the maths.
This is a great introduction to the types and uses of models. The lectures are clear, and the examples given show good applicability to real world problems. Thanks for making it available!
This course is a great introduction to simple but useful models. The prominent feature of the course is an intuition and practical examples based one the models provided. Many thanks!
Very inspiring! Brings me into a whole new world, to look at things from brand new perspective.\n\nI love this course and would like to be posted on any update on this subject.
This is a course for anyone who wants to be able to think logically. As an IT professional I would recommend this course to my colleagues in the Information Technology field.
Really good. Fantastic overview.\n\nFor my taste it was a bit too easy and it could have gone more in depth in some topics. But I understand the need to keep it general also.
Loving this course so far, eager and excited to continue it and finish very soon. A great addition of analytical frameworks and management strategies to add to my toolkit.
This is an excellent course. I wish I had taken this course before law school and graduate school. It would have saved me time and energy while increasing my grades.
Very interesting! The teacher explains really well and even though his expertise is social science, he always explains how this thinking can pertain to other realms.
All the way 5! I am a last year Ph.D. candidate and this is one of the best courses I have ever had in my whole life! The instructor is amazing! I highly recommend.
Clear. Well paced. Methodical. Ideal balance of mathematics and practical application. Mathematics not too overwhelming although it did push my thinking hard.
A very good course. Need time to be completed. It should continue on and lectures should be available every time regarless of end of quizez or assignments.
Well done, the professor has a great personality which makes it fun to understand the topics. Using math to solve practical real life problems. Amazing!
Succinct, useful in day to day life, easy to understand and yet complex. A great course I would recommend to everybody (and frequently do recommend).
Excellent course, wide scale application, highly recommend.\n\nAlso :\n\n-clear presentation\n\n-no technical issues with quizzes or content issues
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